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Space · KXSTARSHIPSPACE · Resolves Jan 1, 2027

How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?

Showing: 4 · Resolves Jan 1, 2027
4 · 38% chance▼ 1Updated 4 min ago
Feeds 33m ago · No AI summary yet

Forecast

59%35%10%Jul 14Sep 13Oct 11

Stats

Volume$11.5K
24h volume$13
Open interest$6.0K
Days left82
Bid / ask37¢ / 39¢
Last38¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
551%▼ 5Yes 51¢ No 49¢
438%▼ 1Yes 38¢ No 62¢
35%0Yes 5¢ No 95¢
63%0Yes 3¢ No 97¢
82%▼ 1Yes 2¢ No 98¢
92%▲ 1Yes 2¢ No 98¢
21%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
10 or above1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
1 or below1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
71%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Why it moved AI

No AI brief yet. Odds, news, and rules still load. If xAI is out of credits, the error is stored under Admin → Jobs and calls back off for 15 minutes.

Generated from news and X posts below

News

Spaceflight Now · 2d
SpaceX launches 21 data satellites for the Space Development Agency

Liftoff of the Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California carrying satellites for the Space Development Agency’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture constellation came at 12:39 a.m. PDT (3:39 EDT / 0739 UTC). <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/09/spacex-to-make-another-attempt-to-launch-21-data-satellites-for-space-development-agency/" ti

SpaceNews · 3d
What will it take to build a moon base?

<img width="1024" height="768" src="https://i0.wp.com/spacenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/space-minds-podcast-jhu-moon-2000-1500.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1" class="attachment-rss-image-size size-rss-image-size wp-post-image" alt="" decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/spacenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/space-minds-podcast-jhu-moon-2000-1500.jpg?w=200

Spaceflight Now · 7d
SpaceX scrubs launch attempt for 21 data transport satellites for the Space Development Agency

The Tranche 1 Transporter Layer A mission is the fourth flight supporting the Space Development Agency’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture constellation. The next launch attempt could come as soon as Saturday. <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/04/live-coverage-spacex-to-launch-21-data-transport-satellites-for-the-space-development-agency/" title="SpaceX s

Spaceflight Now · 9d
Falcon Heavy flies its first mission for U.S. spy satellite agency

The 14th Falcon Heavy rocket is scheduled to blast off on a clandestine mission from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center at 11:54 p.m. EDT (0354 UTC).

Spaceflight Now · 10d
Fresh crew takes off for six-month stay aboard space station

Strapped into a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule, Crew 13 commander Jessica Watkins, pilot Luke Delaney, Russian cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov and Canadian astronaut Joshua Kutryk blasted off from pad 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station at 11:10 a.m. EDT. <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/01/fresh-crew-takes-off-for-six-month-stay-aboard-space-station/" title=

Spaceflight Now · 10d
Launch preview: More than 100 spacecraft hitch a ride to orbit on SpaceX’s Transporter-18

The mission carried 130 payloads onboard the Falcon 9 rocket heading to a Sun-synchronous orbit. Liftoff from pad 4E at Vandenberg Space Force Base happened at 11:32 a.m. PDT (2:32 p.m. EDT / 1832 UTC). <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/01/live-coverage-ai-datacenter-prototypes-energy-redirection-demonstrators-and-more-launching-on-spacexs-transporter-18/" title="

Via Satellite · 13d
SpaceX’s Starship Reaches Orbit, Cuts 10-Hour Mission Short After Engine Issue

SpaceX’s Starship Reaches Orbit, Cuts 10-Hour Mission Short Aft

Space · 13d
SpaceX launches Starship into orbit for 1st time — largest rocket ever built notches key milestone on dramatic Flight 14 test

SpaceX launches Starship into orbit for 1st time — largest rocket ever buil

X Feed

SS
@Space_Station · 3h

New science, supplies, and roll-out solar arrays are targeted to launch aboard a @SpaceX Dragon at 6:33 a.m. EDT on Tuesday. Expedition 75 is scheduled to receive the space delivery at 11 a.m. Wednesday. More... https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-sets-coverage-for-spacex-35th-station-resupply-launch-arrival/

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DI
@digitaworld1 · 3d

SpaceX just put its biggest rocket into orbit for the first time. It also launched 26 of the largest Starlink satellites ever built. On September 28, Starship lifted off from Starbase in Texas. This was its 14th test flight. Earlier flights flew a high arc and fell back to Earth.

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MA
@macroCapt · 3d

October 2026 Space Technology Monthly. Starship reached orbit, but engine trouble cut it short. Falcon flew three times in under 13 hours. The Louisiana filing is an application, not a permit. Information only, not investment or legal advice. https://x.com/i/article/2108195638144094208

Open on X
JO
@jollymampilly · 3d

'Things are going super well at 39A': SpaceX gearing up to launch Starship from Florida for 1st time | Space https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/things-are-going-super-well-at-39a-spacex-gearing-up-to-launch-starship-from-florida-for-1st-time

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TH
@theducessR · 4d

A single Starship launch delivering 20-30x the capacity of a Falcon launch with V3 satellites is pure sci-fi engineering turning into reality. The scale velocity is unmatched. 🚀 📐 📊 🧮 📊

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GL
@GlasgowPam · 6d

We may have just witnessed the peak of the Falcon family of rockets. 3 missions, in less than 13 hours, 4 booster landings and a crew docking to station. Incredible! Falcon is winding down as Starship ramps up. Congrats on a HUGE day. Don't forget, Starship just launched Monday!

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BU
@business · 13d

SpaceX’s massive Starship rocket lifted off on Monday morning on its first orbital flight test, a critical milestone that could pave the way for the test rocket to begin regular satellite launches https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-28/spacex-to-stage-first-ever-starship-flight-to-orbit-in-key-test?srnd=homepage-americas

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Rules

If exactly 4 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight. Each launch is considered separate and will contribute to count separately, even if the same Starship is launched multiple times. (For example, if in period the same Starship is launched twice and reaches space twice, count will be 2).