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US Senate · SENATETX · Resolves 11/3/2027

Texas Senate winner?

40%▲ 3Updated 7 min agoKalshi Yes · Ken Paxton
Feeds 7m · summary never

Forecast

54%42%29%Sep 12Oct 7Oct 11

Stats

Volume$15.3M
24h volume$988.9K
Open interest$10.8M
Days left388
Bid / ask39¢ / 40¢
Last40¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
James Talarico61%▼ 2Yes 61¢ No 39¢
Ken Paxton40%▲ 3Yes 40¢ No 60¢

Why it moved AI

No AI brief yet. Odds, news, and rules still load. If xAI is out of credits, the error is stored under Admin → Jobs and calls back off for 15 minutes.

Generated from news and X posts below

News

The Hill · 2h
Trump, Vance blitz Ohio as Democrats look to flip governor's mansion

The red-leaning Buckeye State governor’s mansion could flip for the first time in two decades as Democrat Amy Acton narrowly leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in recent polls of their bitter midterm battle. A new CNN poll Thursday showed Acton up 8 percentage points over Ramaswam

The Hill · 3h
Murphy takes fight against Iran war to Middle East

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), this past week took his fight against the Iran war to the Middle East, seeking to expose damages caused by the conflict that he has repeatedly accused the Trump administration of trying to cover up. Murphy, who sits on the powerful Senate Foreign Rel

PhillyBurbs · 9h
Who do latest polls show winning 2026 midterms? See odds, forecasts - PhillyBurbs

Who do latest polls show winning 2026 midterms? See odds, forecasts  PhillyBurbs

Politico · 17h
Trump announces Katie Bailey as new chief of White House-Hill relations

The longtime Republican Hill staffer takes up the role after James Braid’s departure.

Politico · 1d
Trump boosts a New York ally in a tough race

GOP gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman hasn’t hesitated to tie himself to the president.

Politico · 2d
Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race

It comes as the Senate battlefield tilts further into red turf.

Politico · 2d
House Democratic campaign arm says it needs $17 million, and fast

It’s the first time Democrats’ House campaign arm has put a dollar figure on its needs, as Republicans maintain a large cash advantage.

The New York Times · 2d
Kansas Senate Race Is a Surprising New Midterm Fight - The New York Times

Kansas Senate Race Is a Surprising New Midterm Fight  The New York Times

Decision Desk HQ | Substack · 2d
📈 Could Democrats actually flip Kansas’s Senate seat? - Decision Desk HQ | Substack

📈 Could Democrats actually flip Kansas’s Senate seat?  Decision Desk HQ | Substack

Forbes · 2d
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Jackson Leads In Maine, Hinson Ahead In Iowa (Updated Daily) - Forbes

Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Jackson Leads In Maine, Hinson Ahead In Iowa (Updated Daily)  Forbes

AP News · 2d
Senate races to watch in the 2026 midterm elections - AP News

Senate races to watch in the 2026 midterm elections  AP News

PBS · 3d
5 House districts where Republicans are looking to turn the tables as Democrats eye big midterm wins - PBS

5 House districts where Republicans are looking to turn the tables as Democrats eye big midterm wins  PBS

UMass Lowell · 3d
Texas poll: Paxton, Talarico tied in U.S. Senate race - UMass Lowell

Texas poll: Paxton, Talarico tied in U.S. Senate race  UMass Lowell

X Feed

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Rules

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.