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Space · KXSTARSHIPSPACE · Resolves Jan 1, 2027

How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?

Showing: 5 · Resolves Jan 1, 2027
5 · 50% chance▼ 6Updated 2 min ago
Feeds 8m ago · AI summary 3h ago

Forecast

62%44%26%
Jul 14Oct 5Oct 11

Stats

Volume$17.4K
24h volume$100
Open interest$9.3K
Days left82
Bid / ask48¢ / 51¢
Last47¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
550%▼ 6Yes 50¢ No 50¢
438%▼ 1Yes 38¢ No 62¢
35%0Yes 5¢ No 95¢
63%0Yes 3¢ No 97¢
82%▼ 1Yes 2¢ No 98¢
92%▲ 1Yes 2¢ No 98¢
21%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
10 or above1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
1 or below1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
71%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Why it moved AI

  • SpaceX launches Falcon 9 for SDA data satellites; no Starship activity (SpaceX, Spaceflight Now)
  • Starship Ship 40 returns home; Ship 42 in testing (NASASpaceflight)
  • No 2026 Starship schedule changes, scrubs, or FAA updates cited
Generated from news and X posts below · 3h ago

News

BASENOR - Tesla Accessories · 1d
Starship Flight 15: 5 Details That Matter
Spaceflight Now · 2d
SpaceX launches 21 data satellites for the Space Development Agency

Liftoff of the Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California carrying satellites for the Space Development Agency’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture constellation came at 12:39 a.m. PDT (3:39 EDT / 0739 UTC). <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/09/spacex-to-make-another-attempt-to-launch-21-data-satellites-for-space-development-agency/" ti

SpaceNews · 3d
What will it take to build a moon base?

In this episode, a panel of industry experts discuss what’s needed to build a moon base. During a live event at the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg Center, leaders Astrolab, Firefly […] The post What will it take to build a moon base? appeared first on SpaceNews.

SpaceNews · 6d
Resource competition intensifies with surge in megaconstellations

<img width="1024" height="623" src="https://i0.wp.com/spacenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/spacex-odc.jpeg?fit=1024%2C623&ssl=1" class="attachment-rss-image-size size-rss-image-size wp-post-image" alt="SpaceX Starlnk" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/spacenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/spacex-odc.jpeg?w=2500&ssl=1 2500w, https://i0.wp.com/

Spaceflight Now · 7d
SpaceX scrubs launch attempt for 21 data transport satellites for the Space Development Agency

The Tranche 1 Transporter Layer A mission is the fourth flight supporting the Space Development Agency’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture constellation. The next launch attempt could come as soon as Saturday. <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/04/live-coverage-spacex-to-launch-21-data-transport-satellites-for-the-space-development-agency/" title="SpaceX s

NOLA.com · 7d
Photos: Starship launches from Texas as Elon Musk plans a $100 billion spaceport in Louisiana

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAJBVV95cUxQaEppRW9FMEVNdHljLTY3YXNhUVdMTDFfWG90QlpYMTVDUkc0TW9uM29xT3JZTUN0X1EydUNIWHRPWFBubURkUGRRTnlGTkxZUkxpNTM5TEFCenI3OWQ5YUxNbkZGSXViVWJtVFhVZm5URnhObHRLa1RKRTFteXpJeGZVU2czSDZGTHpsY0Z0X2tXeWR6dnBwWWNyb2YxSEwxc2VaRUwxMFF0MUVTQVdEOF9iUWwyb3V2Z2U5eDJUc2FHeXZZV1FxSEI0VGZadGo1azlKWWpiRUVwY2lrUUhic3NickdMZV9ocjQtaTZQeWhzR1BmRlhNWmREc2RhbWtLbTRuQj

Spaceflight Now · 10d
Falcon Heavy flies its first mission for U.S. spy satellite agency

The 14th Falcon Heavy rocket is scheduled to blast off on a clandestine mission from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center at 11:54 p.m. EDT (0354 UTC).

Spaceflight Now · 10d
Fresh crew takes off for six-month stay aboard space station

Strapped into a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule, Crew 13 commander Jessica Watkins, pilot Luke Delaney, Russian cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov and Canadian astronaut Joshua Kutryk blasted off from pad 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station at 11:10 a.m. EDT. <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/01/fresh-crew-takes-off-for-six-month-stay-aboard-space-station/" title=

Spaceflight Now · 10d
Launch preview: More than 100 spacecraft hitch a ride to orbit on SpaceX’s Transporter-18

The mission carried 130 payloads onboard the Falcon 9 rocket heading to a Sun-synchronous orbit. Liftoff from pad 4E at Vandenberg Space Force Base happened at 11:32 a.m. PDT (2:32 p.m. EDT / 1832 UTC). <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/01/live-coverage-ai-datacenter-prototypes-energy-redirection-demonstrators-and-more-launching-on-spacexs-transporter-18/" title="

SpaceX · 13d
Starship Flight 14
Houston Public Media · 13d
SpaceX’s Starship launches from South Texas, returns to Earth with a thud

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi6wFBVV95cUxPYmptNWw5X0w0ekQwNVV2ckNFMlY3Yzc1WkY1a1UzSXVyQ2lMWk5SMTdjMGNGTkhWYmhoZ2dtWGxGR0Ytb1U1cm9telNlNm52MHpRdDZwUGZhNnl0QzU2anliSENYUGFtYkJMdXl0Q3didUc1ZF8yTm9BNm1qeDdGQVBlRmREYktNeXNpVUE0cnJGWVp3QTd1M3UwX3FfUUpibGRQazdGZjJGeV9hZTZKS2prandDMWNjbHRySkItQnp6UnlMcHFrT0VTelc2QmlELXB5d0llYUFsSGNPQ2JFN2FGSEhLUjd2UGVr0gHzAUFVX3lxTFBZdVRWZllXeGlBeDFzTk

CNBC · 13d
SpaceX launches its massive Starship rocket into orbit for the first time

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxPc2RkMkI4ZlBkTUhDYWZkZVBWa0M1c2JVZ2NMS1FuMkhqa3RjSERxMi1XWXNLUkNJZTNJaUMzZ2hJbWtGV19ES1RJazJ2YlVLTGpGQnpEcFFPaENXeUdyUVZZUlJkT1hJUWVISjhHQW5wb0JueUR3QjJoS3dXS3lBeUktQTAzLWN6TGd6VjVIem9EZ1IwekdLaUtHNFJtNHhkclHSAacBQVVfeXFMTy1yTXk1Qk0wcEZ2QnhELWJQOVZtaEZFUHozUFd6TnNqNjFmNTVaNW1qRk41Yi1GeW8tZXhXMnlhZjVUQWFsSzJPZEVvNUtONjQxVTlsRkItbUI3aHVtVU

PBS · 13d
SpaceX's supersized Starship launches into orbit for the first time but flight ends early

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxNQ2lxalVZZ2xmcnFmT19RZElNdWJoTFFJZ2M3VEpieW96Q0swWmxmcU84Q2pQU3B4UnNoNnRJS09ZUnBGeC1TbG5aRjUtM19EQjEyaVRxY2xRZmttY01laE9JaE5ydFJyNUdrMWdsSXl4cDhTVllRZnZJOXA5OHZYQVRWczFQU3M2ZTdtTmZmN0JMVHFDU2RZOWYwbjMwYlNpYU1JaTFR0gGrAUFVX3lxTE5iVkJOS2prSHo5Wlh6d082NlhTeUJ5SU82N2FVYUtQelZVNHFFa3BIaW41N2xFR25SaHRndFh4aGozaHdZZlJnWkR1a3J2cTQza2VydlZzMlVjaX

NewsNation · 13d
Elon Musk’s SpaceX Starship ends flight early after first-ever orbit of Earth

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE9UT0hVeERLUmUzb19pSXhUVUVHY09Td3gyT0NrRlYzSWJEQWZyeXBSMXROMUY0ekdDbVpXSVU4Sm5yYTlFU2tWd2VDV3lSNUN6djY4YW5fR01yU2pSRDlNZVU5VWFxc3pmMkV0NnBEd254d1RNbVVTZFR4ZFVyNnfSAYQBQVVfeXFMUHFQN3VqelZpdThjaTg4UF82SXFoRXZNaUtuWU9FazlCOExGLTdfaDhwZXZRZEhSUTRzU3NaSXYxZ3Myd2MxUUZYbnZMc2RmbGpXUlllVXdhVVVCUjBJdVo2eXExZjVlVUstM2h3QjB6dGRzVDZKZEFyN0dMbUZ1MEg3TH

X Feed

NA
@NASASpaceflight · 19h

SpaceX Ship 40 Homecoming Transport https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1AJEmvLzRAoJL

Open on X
SP
@SpaceX · 1d

Falcon 9 launches the @SemperCitiusSDA's fourth Tranche 1 data transport mission to low-Earth orbit

Open on X
SP
@SpaceX · 1d

Falcon 9’s first stage lands on LZ-4

Open on X
SP
@SpaceX · 1d

Watch Falcon 9 launch the @SemperCitiusSDA’s fourth Tranche 1 data transport mission to low-Earth orbit https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1jGXgBoBYkRKZ

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SP
@SpaceX · 1d

Less than one hour until Falcon 9’s launch of the @SemperCitiusSDA's fourth Tranche 1 mission from California. Weather is 80% favorable for liftoff, and propellant load will begin shortly → https://www.spacex.com/launches/sda-t1tl-a

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NA
@NASASpaceflight · 2d

The latest with Starship, as Ship 40 returns home and Ship 42 heads out for more testing. By Ryan Weber (@rweb11742) https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2026/10/ship-40-returns-ship-42-more-testing/

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NA
@NASASpaceflight · 2d

Starship Update with Max Evans (@_MaxQ_) ➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPqDD39cBEw

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SC
@SciGuySpace · 3d

Voyager has a launch contract with SpaceX for Starship. That's its ride to space.

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Rules

If exactly 5 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight. Each launch is considered separate and will contribute to count separately, even if the same Starship is launched multiple times. (For example, if in period the same Starship is launched twice and reaches space twice, count will be 2).