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Space · KXMOON · Resolves Jan 1, 2027

NASA lands on the moon?

Showing: Before 2027 · Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Before 2027 · 1% chance0Updated 5 min ago
Feeds 10m ago · AI summary 2h ago

Forecast

5%3%0%Sep 12Oct 6Oct 11

Stats

Volume$287.7K
24h volume$0
Open interest$83.5K
Days left82
Bid / ask0¢ / 1¢
Last1¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Before 203041%▲ 1Yes 41¢ No 59¢
Before 202925%▲ 3Yes 25¢ No 75¢
Before 20283%▲ 1Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Before 20271%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Why it moved AI

  • FAA cleared Starship flight with no mishap probe after engine loss. (@letterjbp)
  • Berger ranks Starship most likely next crewed lunar lander. (@grok)
  • Artemis II crew observed 5 meteor impacts on the Moon. (Mashable)
Generated from news and X posts below · 2h ago

News

NASA · 17h
APOD: 2026 October 11

APOD Science APOD APOD: 2026 October 11 – Ice… Today’s APOD Archive Submissions Index Search Calendar RSS Education About Discuss APOD Astronomy Picture of the Day Discover the cosmos! Each day a different image or photograph of our fascinating universe is featured, along with

NASA · 1d
NASA to Conduct Flyover, Engage NFL Fans at MetLife Stadium

As part of the agency’s Inspiration Tour flyover, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman will pilot one of three F-5 fighter jets to kick off the New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns game in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Sunday, Oct. 11. NASA team members will engage with fans at the

NASA · 1d
APOD: 2026 October 10

APOD Science APOD APOD: 2026 October 10… Today’s APOD Archive Submissions Index Search Calendar RSS Education About Discuss APOD Astronomy Picture of the Day Discover the cosmos! Each day a different image or photograph of our fascinating universe is featured, along with a brie

Spaceflight Now · 2d
SpaceX launches 21 data satellites for the Space Development Agency

Liftoff of the Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California carrying satellites for the Space Development Agency’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture constellation came at 12:39 a.m. PDT (3:39 EDT / 0739 UTC).

NASA · 2d
NASA Seeks US Industry Plans for Commercial Space Stations

NASA is advancing American leadership in space by taking the next step toward a future where commercial space stations lead the way in low Earth orbit. On Friday, the agency released its final Request for Proposals inviting industry to submit plans for the next generation of comm

NASA · 2d
NASA Demonstrates Next-Generation Heat Shield Technologies

NASA is testing heat shields that can keep astronauts safe as they return from missions to the Moon and Mars in an unusual way: by taking out the trash. When Northrop Grumman 24th cargo resupply mission for NASA undocked from the International Space Station, it carried a fleet of

NASA · 2d
Cosmic House of Mirrors

Galaxies warp and multiply as if in a house of mirrors in this image from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope released on Sept. 29, 2026. The brilliant golden galaxies seen here are part of a galaxy cluster called MACS J0454.1-0300. The orange galaxies bunched together on one

SpaceNews · 3d
What will it take to build a moon base?

<img width="1024" height="768" src="https://i0.wp.com/spacenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/space-minds-podcast-jhu-moon-2000-1500.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1" class="attachment-rss-image-size size-rss-image-size wp-post-image" alt="" decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/spacenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/space-minds-podcast-jhu-moon-2000-1500.jpg?w=200

X Feed

GR
@grok · 2h

Berger clarified after the poll closed that he listed the options in most-likely to least-likely order. The options appeared as Starship, Blue Moon, Lanyue, matching his ranking.

Open on X
GR
@grok · 2h

Berger ranked the poll options (Starship, Blue Moon, Lanyue) as his personal most-to-least likely order for the next crewed lunar lander. Starship leads in his view due to SpaceX's rapid iteration: it reached orbit in 2026, has high flight cadence potential, and is under NASA contract with Artemis III docking tests in 2027 and a possible 2028 landing. Refueling remains the key hurdle, but they solve issues fast. Blue Moon is second: Mk1 cargo aims for Q1 2027 (delayed by New Glenn pad issues), with Mk2 competing for early crewed flights via a more conventional design, though development has historically been slower.

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MA
@MacNelious100 · 3d

Self-funded ? NASA already paid SpaceX about $2.9 billion for the Human Landing System, and that lander is a Starship. Taxpayer money pick up a book for once.

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LE
@letterjbp · 6d

Starship reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink V3 sats. The flight was cut short after an engine loss, but the FAA says no mishap probe. Next gates for the lunar lander: a long-duration flight and ship-to-ship refueling. Flight 15: NET Oct 19, provisional.

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TE
@teslaownersSV · 10d

Elon Musk on why Starship is extraordinary. "We're doing something that is at the limit of biological intelligence." Flight 14 just put that machine in orbit with 26 Starlink V3 satellites, then splashed down in the Pacific. "Probably the biggest thing ever made by pure human hands." - @elonmusk 🎥 Moonshots with @PeterDiamandis

Open on X
WK
@WKCosmo · 12d

Starship makes it to orbit in a historic first, deploying a commercial payload and executing flawless landings of both booster and ship. Reuters:

Open on X

Rules

If an announcement indicates that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.