α
✦
US Senate · RSENATESEATS · Resolves Feb 1, 2027

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

Showing: 54 · Resolves Feb 1, 2027
54 · 4% chance0Updated 4 min ago
Feeds 39m ago · AI summary 1h ago

Forecast

8%4%0%
Jul 14Oct 5Oct 11

Stats

Volume$107.4K
24h volume$2.6K
Open interest$103.0K
Days left113
Bid / ask3¢ / 4¢
Last3¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
4817%▲ 1Yes 17¢ No 83¢
4714%0Yes 14¢ No 86¢
5013%0Yes 13¢ No 87¢
4913%▲ 1Yes 13¢ No 87¢
4610%0Yes 10¢ No 90¢
518%▲ 1Yes 8¢ No 92¢
458%▲ 1Yes 8¢ No 92¢
Below 458%0Yes 8¢ No 92¢
527%▲ 1Yes 7¢ No 93¢
535%0Yes 5¢ No 95¢
Above 573%▲ 1Yes 3¢ No 97¢
553%0Yes 3¢ No 97¢
544%0Yes 4¢ No 96¢
562%0Yes 2¢ No 98¢
571%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Why it moved AI

  • WaPo: Trump faces new threat of Democratic Senate.
  • Senate Majority PAC launches $5M Kansas TV buy; adds $3.7M in Texas (Svitek, Goldmacher).
  • NYT: GOP nervous about holding Great Plains seats.
  • Hill: North Carolina shifting Democratic.
Generated from news and X posts below · 1h ago

News

The Hill · 1h
Top Senate Republican calls Guilfoyle reports ‘very troubling’

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), the Senate Majority Whip, on Sunday expressed concern about the recent reporting on U.S. Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle and her finances. “Well, what we've seen in the reports is very troubling. It's concerning. And I'm sure there's going to be an investigation. I would assume the State Department would be...

The Hill · 5h
Lawmakers in bipartisan statement push back on Trump over Russian oil

A bipartisan group of seven lawmakers on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee condemned President Trump’s recent deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which would lift sanctions on Russia and permit the flow of its oil into the global economy. “Congress explicitly banned Russian energy imports in 2022 to prevent American dollars from financing Putin’s brutal...

Democracy Docket · 6h
Bannon: GOP struggling to hold Senate because it didn’t pass SAVE America Act

Bannon: GOP struggling to hold Senate because it didn’t pass SAVE America

The Hill · 7h
Why North Carolina is shifting Democratic

Democrats have the wind at their backs in North Carolina, particularly in the race for Senate, where former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is up against Republican political operative Michael Whatley to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). Based on polling, nonpartisan ratings and campaign ​shifts, Cooper seems poised to win. A national Republican PAC...

The Hill · 12h
Trump, Vance blitz Ohio as Democrats look to flip governor's mansion

The red-leaning Buckeye State governor’s mansion could flip for the first time in two decades as Democrat Amy Acton narrowly leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in recent polls of their bitter midterm battle. A new CNN poll Thursday showed Acton up 8 percentage points over Ramaswamy, after a New York Times/Siena poll found Acton ahead by...

The Hill · 13h
Murphy takes fight against Iran war to Middle East

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) this past week took his fight against the Iran war to the Middle East, seeking to expose damages caused by the conflict that he has repeatedly accused the Trump administration of trying to cover up. Murphy, who sits on the powerful Senate Foreign Relations and Appropriations committees, traveled to Qatar and...

Politico · 1d
Trump announces Katie Bailey as new chief of White House-Hill relations

The longtime Republican Hill staffer takes up the role after James Braid’s departure.

The Hill · 1d
GOP lawmakers reject US-Russia diesel deal, Trump's Zelensky comments

Several Republicans voiced objections to the Trump administration's Russian diesel deal and President Trump's suggestion that Ukraine needs a new leader. When asked about the deal, Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said Friday he supported the president’s decision, but he doesn’t “support his decision to import it from Putin. Vladimir Putin is a butcher. He's a butcher...

South Carolina Daily Gazette · 2d
US Senate majority leader campaigns with Darline Graham in SC, saying GOP can't 'take any chances'

US Senate majority leader campaigns with Darline

Politico · 2d
Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race

It comes as the Senate battlefield tilts further into red turf.

Politico · 2d
House Democratic campaign arm says it needs $17 million, and fast

It’s the first time Democrats’ House campaign arm has put a dollar figure on its needs, as Republicans maintain a large cash advantage.

The Conversation · 3d
The American mood is turning dark, and Republicans are likely to pay the price at the midterms

The American mood is turning dark, and Republicans are like

X Feed

PA
@PatrickSvitek · 2d

Senate Majority PAC (D) announces it’s starting to play in Kansas It’ll launch a $5 million TV campaign, from tomorrow through Election Day “The gap is closing in Kansas, and we are committed to ensuring families understand” Marshall’s record, an SMP spox says #KSSEN

Open on X
SH
@ShaneGoldmacher · 2d

Senate Majority PAC newly going into KANSAS with $5 million via @baylisswagner https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/09/us/politics/adam-hamilton-roger-marshall-kansas-senate.html

Open on X
PA
@PatrickSvitek · 2d

Scoop: Ken Paxton privately complained John Cornyn “wants me to lose,” as their years-long feud boils over in a high-stakes Senate race The latest leak from a Paxton fundraiser last month: https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/09/politics/ken-paxton-audio-john-cornyn #TXSEN

Open on X
PA
@PatrickSvitek · 3d

Texas Forever, the Senate Majority PAC spinoff for #TXSEN, puts another $3.7 million in to the race, for a total of $5.8 million so far: https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00962308/2018469//se

Open on X
DA
@daveweigel · 3d

Progressives want Chris Van Hollen but all I’m saying is, if Dems win the senate they’ll be too busy crying tears of joy about Schumer recruiting Peltola to want a real leadership fight

Open on X
HE
@HenryJGomez · 3d

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer will campaign with Abdul El-Sayed today ahead of his #MISen debate with Mike Rogers. Whitmer, who beat El-Sayed in the 2018 primary for governor, endorsed Stevens in this year’s Senate primary.

Open on X
PA
@PatrickSvitek · 4d

#NC01: New internal poll from Democratic Rep. Don Davis has him up 47-39 on Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout (GQR; Sept. 29-Oct. 4; 500 LVs; +/-4%) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Yt-bOVqBFd9cPU3A2R1_MuOpnluJwmJM/view?usp=sharing

Open on X

Rules

If the Republican party has exactly 54 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.