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US Senate · KXDSENATESEATS · Resolves Feb 1, 2027

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Showing: 52 · Resolves Feb 1, 2027
52 · 17% chance▼ 1Updated 2 min ago
Feeds 2h ago · AI summary 4h ago

Forecast

22%18%14%
Oct 11

Stats

Volume$599.4K
24h volume$2.5K
Open interest$405.9K
Days left113
Bid / ask16¢ / 17¢
Last17¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Above 5236%▲ 1Yes 36¢ No 64¢
5217%▼ 1Yes 17¢ No 83¢
5013%▲ 1Yes 13¢ No 87¢
5113%0Yes 13¢ No 87¢
499%▲ 1Yes 9¢ No 91¢
487%▲ 1Yes 7¢ No 93¢
474%0Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Below 453%0Yes 3¢ No 97¢
462%0Yes 2¢ No 98¢
452%0Yes 2¢ No 98¢

Why it moved AI

  • Senate Majority PAC launching $5M TV campaign in Kansas Senate race (@PatrickSvitek, Politico)
  • House Democratic campaign arm says it needs $17 million fast (Politico)
  • Internal poll: NC Rep. Don Davis leads 47-39 (@PatrickSvitek)
  • Why North Carolina is shifting Democratic (The Hill)
Generated from news and X posts below · 4h ago

News

The Hill · 5h
Lawmakers in bipartisan statement push back on Trump over Russian oil

A bipartisan group of seven lawmakers on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee condemned President Trump’s recent deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which would lift sanctions on Russia and permit the flow of its oil into the global economy. “Congress explicitly banned Russian energy imports in 2022 to prevent American dollars from financing Putin’s brutal...

The Hill · 7h
Why North Carolina is shifting Democratic

Democrats have the wind at their backs in North Carolina, particularly in the race for Senate, where former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is up against Republican political operative Michael Whatley to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). Based on polling, nonpartisan ratings and campaign ​shifts, Cooper seems poised to win. A national Republican PAC...

The Hill · 13h
Murphy takes fight against Iran war to Middle East

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) this past week took his fight against the Iran war to the Middle East, seeking to expose damages caused by the conflict that he has repeatedly accused the Trump administration of trying to cover up. Murphy, who sits on the powerful Senate Foreign Relations and Appropriations committees, traveled to Qatar and...

The Hill · 1d
Democrats explode over Trump's Russia diesel deal

Democratic lawmakers pushed back Friday on President Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Russian oil amid global fuel shortages during U.S. military operations against Iran and the Russia-Ukraine war. The deal will permit Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government to supply 300,000 tons of diesel to the U.S. and the global marketplace. “I have just concluded...

Politico · 2d
Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race

It comes as the Senate battlefield tilts further into red turf.

Politico · 2d
House Democratic campaign arm says it needs $17 million, and fast

It’s the first time Democrats’ House campaign arm has put a dollar figure on its needs, as Republicans maintain a large cash advantage.

X Feed

SH
@ShaneGoldmacher · 1d

TRY YOUR HAND: Can you construct a Senate majority? Gift link 🎁: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/08/us/elections/senate-races-midterms-battleground-states.html?unlocked_article_code=1.HlE.yOPO.flYx6SKu38Bb&smid=url-share

Open on X
PA
@PatrickSvitek · 2d

Senate Majority PAC (D) announces it’s starting to play in Kansas It’ll launch a $5 million TV campaign, from tomorrow through Election Day “The gap is closing in Kansas, and we are committed to ensuring families understand” Marshall’s record, an SMP spox says #KSSEN

Open on X
SH
@ShaneGoldmacher · 2d

Senate Majority PAC newly going into KANSAS with $5 million via @baylisswagner https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/09/us/politics/adam-hamilton-roger-marshall-kansas-senate.html

Open on X
PA
@PatrickSvitek · 2d

Scoop: Ken Paxton privately complained John Cornyn “wants me to lose,” as their years-long feud boils over in a high-stakes Senate race The latest leak from a Paxton fundraiser last month: https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/09/politics/ken-paxton-audio-john-cornyn #TXSEN

Open on X
PA
@PatrickSvitek · 3d

Texas Forever, the Senate Majority PAC spinoff for #TXSEN, puts another $3.7 million in to the race, for a total of $5.8 million so far: https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00962308/2018469//se

Open on X
DA
@daveweigel · 3d

Progressives want Chris Van Hollen but all I’m saying is, if Dems win the senate they’ll be too busy crying tears of joy about Schumer recruiting Peltola to want a real leadership fight

Open on X
HE
@HenryJGomez · 3d

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer will campaign with Abdul El-Sayed today ahead of his #MISen debate with Mike Rogers. Whitmer, who beat El-Sayed in the 2018 primary for governor, endorsed Stevens in this year’s Senate primary.

Open on X
PA
@PatrickSvitek · 4d

#NC01: New internal poll from Democratic Rep. Don Davis has him up 47-39 on Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout (GQR; Sept. 29-Oct. 4; 500 LVs; +/-4%) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Yt-bOVqBFd9cPU3A2R1_MuOpnluJwmJM/view?usp=sharing

Open on X

Rules

If the Democratic Party has exactly 52 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).