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US Senate · KXDSENATESEATS · Resolves Feb 1, 2027

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Showing: Below 45 · Resolves Feb 1, 2027
Below 45 · 3% chance0Updated 2 min ago
Feeds 1m ago · No AI summary yet

Forecast

8%4%0%
Oct 5Oct 9Oct 11

Stats

Volume$447.4K
24h volume$4.5K
Open interest$346.6K
Days left113
Bid / ask3¢ / 3¢
Last3¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Above 5236%0Yes 36¢ No 64¢
5218%0Yes 18¢ No 82¢
5114%0Yes 14¢ No 86¢
5013%▲ 1Yes 13¢ No 87¢
499%▲ 1Yes 9¢ No 91¢
487%▲ 1Yes 7¢ No 93¢
474%0Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Below 453%0Yes 3¢ No 97¢
462%0Yes 2¢ No 98¢
452%0Yes 2¢ No 98¢

Why it moved AI

No AI brief yet. Odds, news, and rules still load. If xAI is out of credits, the error is stored under Admin → Jobs and calls back off for 15 minutes.

Generated from news and X posts below

News

The Hill · 2h
Lawmakers in bipartisan statement push back on Trump over Russian oil

A bipartisan group of seven lawmakers on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee condemned President Trump’s recent deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which would lift sanctions on Russia and permit the flow of its oil into the global economy. “Congress explicitly banned Russian energy imports in 2022 to prevent American dollars from financing Putin’s brutal...

The Hill · 4h
Why North Carolina is shifting Democratic

Democrats have the wind at their backs in North Carolina, particularly in the race for Senate, where former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is up against Republican political operative Michael Whatley to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). Based on polling, nonpartisan ratings and campaign ​shifts, Cooper seems poised to win. A national Republican PAC...

The Hill · 11h
Murphy takes fight against Iran war to Middle East

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) this past week took his fight against the Iran war to the Middle East, seeking to expose damages caused by the conflict that he has repeatedly accused the Trump administration of trying to cover up. Murphy, who sits on the powerful Senate Foreign Relations and Appropriations committees, traveled to Qatar and...

The Hill · 1d
Democrats explode over Trump's Russia diesel deal

Democratic lawmakers pushed back Friday on President Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Russian oil amid global fuel shortages during U.S. military operations against Iran and the Russia-Ukraine war. The deal will permit Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government to supply 300,000 tons of diesel to the U.S. and the global marketplace. “I have just concluded...

Politico · 2d
Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race

It comes as the Senate battlefield tilts further into red turf.

Politico · 2d
House Democratic campaign arm says it needs $17 million, and fast

It’s the first time Democrats’ House campaign arm has put a dollar figure on its needs, as Republicans maintain a large cash advantage.

PBS · Sep 8
Republicans were confident about keeping the Senate. Now the battle is wide open

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNSGE5ZWxMbHFnNlVLMDlkX2QyUElPemVFRVpxand1UUotb3ppbW01MTdNN2UzQ01kYWNjbk8ydVJiRzY4dkx2OVdqS0FOYm5ITU1laTJxc3NZdDU5eDBoM19NRW5VV0N3V1hnQ3g2VDhqSlhIVjlUYXdFM01DWDRnS3p3Ynh5NzM0bnhJTTBKNGRld19KTmNXR2cxYURReS13YzZJbDEzQ1pVeGtyTk5NOEZlT3pOY3Q10gG-AUFVX3lxTE5wMjZ0WXY4Mi1tdTZESGlDVmtwMzE2R1FLUkpneXdFWXpJMkNsRndaOGp2UWlwMUFTSk92YWlRSEZoUVAzVTE4Wm

X Feed

No X posts yet. Live search retries after the 15-minute backoff if xAI just failed (credits included).

Rules

If the Democratic Party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).