| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 57% | ▲ 1 | Yes 57¢ No 43¢ |
| China | 31% | 0 | Yes 31¢ No 69¢ |
| India | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| European Space Agency | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Russia | 1% | ▲ 1 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
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If European Space Agency is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States.