α
✦
Space · KXMOONMAN · Resolves Jan 1, 2031

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

Showing: European Space Agency · Resolves Jan 1, 2031
European Space Agency · 0% chance0Updated 1 min ago
Feeds 9m ago · AI summary 2h ago

Forecast

6%3%0%Jul 14Oct 6Oct 11

Stats

Volume$10.2K
24h volume$200
Open interest$4.6K
Days left1543
Bid / ask0¢ / 0¢
Last0¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
United States57%▲ 1Yes 57¢ No 43¢
China31%0Yes 31¢ No 69¢
India1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
European Space Agency0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Russia1%▲ 1Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Why it moved AI

  • Artemis II relied on European science (Nature)
  • Artemis III SLS booster stacking completed (@NASASpox)
  • Starship reached orbit, deployed Starlink sats (@ArcanumVentures)
  • ESA PROSPECT lunar ground infrastructure advances (SpaceWatch.GLOBAL)
Generated from news and X posts below · 2h ago

News

SpaceWatch.GLOBAL · 2d
Telespazio BeNeLux Leads Consortium to Build Ground Infrastructure for ESA’s PROSPECT Lunar Mission

Telespazio BeNeLux Leads Consortium to Build Grou

European Space Agency · 3d
Moon Rovers in the Fast Lane

European Space Agen

SpaceNews · 3d
What will it take to build a moon base?

<img width="1024" height="768" src="https://i0.wp.com/spacenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/space-minds-podcast-jhu-moon-2000-1500.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1" class="attachment-rss-image-size size-rss-image-size wp-post-image" alt="" decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/spacenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/space-minds-podcast-jhu-moon-2000-1500.jpg?w=200

Spaceflight Now · 9d
Falcon Heavy flies its first mission for U.S. spy satellite agency

The 14th Falcon Heavy rocket is scheduled to blast off on a clandestine mission from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center at 11:54 p.m. EDT (0354 UTC).

Spaceflight Now · 10d
Fresh crew takes off for six-month stay aboard space station

Strapped into a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule, Crew 13 commander Jessica Watkins, pilot Luke Delaney, Russian cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov and Canadian astronaut Joshua Kutryk blasted off from pad 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station at 11:10 a.m. EDT. <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/01/fresh-crew-takes-off-for-six-month-stay-aboard-space-station/" title=

European Space Agency (ESA) · Jul 14
Artemis II astronauts visit ESA
European Space Agency (ESA) · Apr 3
Artemis II launch
European Space Agency (ESA) · Apr 1
European Service Module engines powering Artemis II

<fon

X Feed

DA
@Davidknows2 · 12h

GREAT SPACEX SpaceX Starship Shocked NASA with Giant Leap towards Artemis Program! https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=q2jipEQ6UEoUbHYW&v=oqzK-EesRFA&feature=youtu.be via @YouTube

Open on X
AR
@ArcanumVentures · 6d

SpaceX Starship reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 real Starlink satellites. After years of explosions, it finally worked. The catch: the ESA says the risk of being killed by falling space debris is rising as the sky fills up. Watch it here:

Open on X
GR
@grok · 6d

Confirmed: India's Mangalyaan hit Mars orbit on first try for ~$74M, about 1/10 of NASA's MAVEN cost. First module of Bharatiya Antariksh Station targeted for 2028. Crewed Moon landing planned for 2040. NASA invited ISRO to join its Moon Base near the south pole under Artemis.

Open on X
NA
@NASASpox · 9d

It was a big week in low Earth orbit at @NASA! 🧑‍🚀 Crew-13 reaches the ISS 🛰️ Crew-14 announced 🚀 Starliner prepares to fly again 🌕 Artemis III SLS booster stacking completed ✈️ X-59 hits Mach 1.53 Here’s what’s new in your NASA Minute!

Open on X
NA
@NASASpaceflight · 11d

Starship's launched, but there's a bunch of big missions to come, including a crew launch to the ISS and a Falcon Heavy on the same day! By Eleanor Day (@elliedayxo) https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2026/09/launch-preview-092926/

Open on X

Rules

If European Space Agency is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States.