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Space · KXMOONMAN · Resolves Jan 1, 2031

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

Showing: United States · Resolves Jan 1, 2031
United States · 57% chance▲ 1Updated just now
Feeds 6m ago · No AI summary yet

Forecast

61%57%53%Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11

Stats

Volume$85.0K
24h volume$166
Open interest$33.8K
Days left1543
Bid / ask56¢ / 57¢
Last57¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
United States57%▲ 1Yes 57¢ No 43¢
China31%0Yes 31¢ No 69¢
India1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
European Space Agency0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Russia1%▲ 1Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Why it moved AI

No AI brief yet. Odds, news, and rules still load. If xAI is out of credits, the error is stored under Admin → Jobs and calls back off for 15 minutes.

Generated from news and X posts below

News

Spaceflight Now · 1d
SpaceX launches 21 data satellites for the Space Development Agency

Liftoff of the Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California carrying satellites for the Space Development Agency’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture constellation came at 12:39 a.m. PDT (3:39 EDT / 0739 UTC).

ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos · 2d
NASA reveals new details on plan to build a base on the moon
NASA · 2d
NASA Seeks US Industry Plans for Commercial Space Stations

NASA is advancing American leadership in space by taking the next step toward a future where commercial space stations lead the way in low Earth orbit. On Friday, the agency released its final Request for Proposals inviting industry to submit plans for the next generation of comm

NASA · 2d
NASA Demonstrates Next-Generation Heat Shield Technologies

NASA is testing heat shields that can keep astronauts safe as they return from missions to the Moon and Mars in an unusual way: by taking out the trash. When Northrop Grumman 24th cargo resupply mission for NASA undocked from the International Space Station, it carried a fleet of

Britannica · 2d
Artemis III

Mission, Date, Crew, & Spacecraft

SpaceNews · 3d
What will it take to build a moon base?

<img width="1024" height="768" src="https://i0.wp.com/spacenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/space-minds-podcast-jhu-moon-2000-1500.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1" class="attachment-rss-image-size size-rss-image-size wp-post-image" alt="" decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/spacenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/space-minds-podcast-jhu-moon-2000-1500.jpg?w=200

Jagran Josh · 3d
World Space Week 2026: Check Theme, History, Celebrations, and Countries that Have Sent Humans to Space

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgJBVV95cUxPa2c5Y1dkeElWZU9IcHlQN0lxS2tLWFM3SEx0d0wtdHdTQjAyTmhLYy1Ka0l0Sy16eWxoak1aWEY5SGw0ZnZORVpZejhxS1d5UHJlVGNaQnl6ODMzRWprZ0J3bzhDT19icmEwUE9pS1pTV09QQXRRWGlxZGswTXVaTjV6cVNpeUlNMWJSN19IdW40YVpCNmRaYk84M2RMdVNBSWJtRGFMTlotejh1RlFkbXB2Q1lSM21KeVNyc0hVMnhPckh2MVFfNVRscE9BbFFrUEtxM2h1RXkxWjNpNVF1TWRHUlMtZGM3ajduUUJ3Zm1XaFpFUkFjMXduVGxIVHpzNlBOMm

SpaceNews · 4d
Announcing the finalists for the 2026 SpaceNews Icon Awards

Meet the 43 leaders and accomplishments that exemplified excellence across the industry over the last 12 months The post Announcing the finalists for the 2026 SpaceNews Icon Awards appeared first on SpaceNews.

Hindustan Times · 5d
World Space Week: From astronauts to paying tourists, a look at countries that have sent humans to space

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi9gFBVV95cUxOQmdRTkhBWVpfODc0TlZHWUF5NFY4UXVSanhBNlk0dW90b0d0Nm9yeTdHaGJZU2Fzb0lFQVJ3bVBpZ1dtZlBWOE1fVWIyc0ZMN1Z1NzExSzd2OVUzX0hGNFNLQzFjenFKREtkNHRhcDZHcEhxb012QXNlalRtbG5mQl85WUNJR0lmQWlYZTdBQnQwanJKdF8ycVJ5ZzFJMGUzalRvaGZpQk9fUXpHYk9aRDFFZ3FBOGVIMUVDR0xIdnB2aE15QlAySXF5czJOMWRPLUUzbUlfUC10c2h4NUhPMGRWZlBmRFc1S0tfZ3F4YUV6STdiaGfSAfsBQVVfeXFMTl9xWG

Spaceflight Now · 7d
SpaceX scrubs launch attempt for 21 data transport satellites for the Space Development Agency

The Tranche 1 Transporter Layer A mission is the fourth flight supporting the Space Development Agency’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture constellation. The next launch attempt could come as soon as Saturday. <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/04/live-coverage-spacex-to-launch-21-data-transport-satellites-for-the-space-development-agency/" title="SpaceX s

Spaceflight Now · 9d
Falcon Heavy flies its first mission for U.S. spy satellite agency

The 14th Falcon Heavy rocket is scheduled to blast off on a clandestine mission from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center at 11:54 p.m. EDT (0354 UTC).

Spaceflight Now · 9d
Fresh crew takes off for six-month stay aboard space station

Strapped into a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule, Crew 13 commander Jessica Watkins, pilot Luke Delaney, Russian cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov and Canadian astronaut Joshua Kutryk blasted off from pad 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station at 11:10 a.m. EDT.

Spaceflight Now · 10d
Launch preview: More than 100 spacecraft hitch a ride to orbit on SpaceX’s Transporter-18

The mission carried 130 payloads onboard the Falcon 9 rocket heading to a Sun-synchronous orbit. Liftoff from pad 4E at Vandenberg Space Force Base happened at 11:32 a.m. PDT (2:32 p.m. EDT / 1832 UTC).

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Rules

If United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States.