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Space · KXSTARSHIPSPACE · Resolves Jan 1, 2027

How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?

Showing: Above 4 · Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Above 4 · 51% chance▼ 27Updated just now
Feeds 41m ago · AI summary 2h ago

Forecast

74%54%34%Sep 12Oct 8Oct 11

Stats

Volume$7.2K
24h volume$14
Open interest$2.2K
Days left82
Bid / ask48¢ / 53¢
Last46¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Above 394%▲ 3Yes 94¢ No 6¢
Above 451%▼ 27Yes 51¢ No 49¢
Above 85%▲ 1Yes 5¢ No 95¢
Above 56%▲ 3Yes 6¢ No 94¢
Above 64%▲ 1Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Above 122%▼ 1Yes 2¢ No 98¢
Above 74%▲ 2Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Above 93%▲ 1Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Above 113%▲ 1Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Above 103%▲ 1Yes 3¢ No 97¢

Why it moved AI

  • X posts note Starship's first orbital test flight launch (@EricLDaugh, @NASAAdmin, @Boca_Tina).
  • No updates on 2026 Starship schedule, FAA approvals, scrubs, weather, or pad turnaround in news or posts.
Generated from news and X posts below · 2h ago

News

Spaceflight Now · 2d
SpaceX launches 21 data satellites for the Space Development Agency

Liftoff of the Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California carrying satellites for the Space Development Agency’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture constellation came at 12:39 a.m. PDT (3:39 EDT / 0739 UTC). <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/09/spacex-to-make-another-attempt-to-launch-21-data-satellites-for-space-development-agency/" ti

NASA · 2d
NASA Seeks US Industry Plans for Commercial Space Stations

NASA is advancing American leadership in space by taking the next step toward a future where commercial space stations lead the way in low Earth orbit. On Friday, the agency released its final Request for Proposals inviting industry to submit plans for the next generation of comm

NASA · 2d
NASA Demonstrates Next-Generation Heat Shield Technologies

NASA is testing heat shields that can keep astronauts safe as they return from missions to the Moon and Mars in an unusual way: by taking out the trash. When Northrop Grumman 24th cargo resupply mission for NASA undocked from the International Space Station, it carried a fleet of

NASA · 2d
Cosmic House of Mirrors

Galaxies warp and multiply as if in a house of mirrors in this image from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope released on Sept. 29, 2026. The brilliant golden galaxies seen here are part of a galaxy cluster called MACS J0454.1-0300. The orange galaxies bunched together on one

SpaceNews · 3d
What will it take to build a moon base?

<img width="1024" height="768" src="https://i0.wp.com/spacenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/space-minds-podcast-jhu-moon-2000-1500.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1" class="attachment-rss-image-size size-rss-image-size wp-post-image" alt="" decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/spacenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/space-minds-podcast-jhu-moon-2000-1500.jpg?w=200

SpaceNews · 4d
Announcing the finalists for the 2026 SpaceNews Icon Awards

Meet the 43 leaders and accomplishments that exemplified excellence across the industry over the last 12 months The post Announcing the finalists for the 2026 SpaceNews Icon Awards appeared first on SpaceNews.

SpaceNews · 6d
Agile Space Industries Strengthens Board and Corporate Development to Support Continued Growth

DURANGO, Colo., Oct. 5, 2026 — Agile Space Industries today announced that Jonathan Baliff has joined its Board of Directors, bringing extensive experience in aerospace, finance, and corporate leadership. His […] The post Agile Space Industries Strengthens Board and Corpor

Spaceflight Now · 7d
SpaceX scrubs launch attempt for 21 data transport satellites for the Space Development Agency

The Tranche 1 Transporter Layer A mission is the fourth flight supporting the Space Development Agency’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture constellation. The next launch attempt could come as soon as Saturday. <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/04/live-coverage-spacex-to-launch-21-data-transport-satellites-for-the-space-development-agency/" title="SpaceX s

Spaceflight Now · 9d
Falcon Heavy flies its first mission for U.S. spy satellite agency

The 14th Falcon Heavy rocket is scheduled to blast off on a clandestine mission from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center at 11:54 p.m. EDT (0354 UTC).

Spaceflight Now · 10d
Fresh crew takes off for six-month stay aboard space station

Strapped into a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule, Crew 13 commander Jessica Watkins, pilot Luke Delaney, Russian cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov and Canadian astronaut Joshua Kutryk blasted off from pad 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station at 11:10 a.m. EDT. <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/01/fresh-crew-takes-off-for-six-month-stay-aboard-space-station/" title=

Spaceflight Now · 10d
Launch preview: More than 100 spacecraft hitch a ride to orbit on SpaceX’s Transporter-18

The mission carried 130 payloads onboard the Falcon 9 rocket heading to a Sun-synchronous orbit. Liftoff from pad 4E at Vandenberg Space Force Base happened at 11:32 a.m. PDT (2:32 p.m. EDT / 1832 UTC). <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/01/live-coverage-ai-datacenter-prototypes-energy-redirection-demonstrators-and-more-launching-on-spacexs-transporter-18/" title="

X Feed

SS
@Space_Station · 3h

New science, supplies, and roll-out solar arrays are targeted to launch aboard a @SpaceX Dragon at 6:33 a.m. EDT on Tuesday. Expedition 75 is scheduled to receive the space delivery at 11 a.m. Wednesday. More... https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-sets-coverage-for-spacex-35th-station-resupply-launch-arrival/

Open on X
GL
@GlasgowPam · 6d

We may have just witnessed the peak of the Falcon family of rockets. 3 missions, in less than 13 hours, 4 booster landings and a crew docking to station. Incredible! Falcon is winding down as Starship ramps up. Congrats on a HUGE day. Don't forget, Starship just launched Monday!

Open on X
ER
@Erdayastronaut · 9d

We may have just witnessed the peak of the Falcon family of rockets. 3 missions, in less than 13 hours, 4 booster landings and a crew docking to station. Incredible! Falcon is winding down as Starship ramps up. Congrats on a HUGE day. Don't forget, Starship just launched Monday!

Open on X
BT
@Boca_Tina · 9d

Starship (finally orbital !!!!), 2x F9s, crewed Dragon, and Falcon Heavy in one week is so unbelievably insane. So proud of team spacex rn :)))))) 🚀🚀🚀

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NA
@NASASpaceflight · 11d

Starship's launched, but there's a bunch of big missions to come, including a crew launch to the ISS and a Falcon Heavy on the same day!

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NA
@NASAAdmin · 13d

Congrats @SpaceX! Gorgeous launch, getting Ship to orbit and managing every step in a safe, responsible, and especially inspirational way. @NASA, along with the rest of the interested public, is excited to help where we can and for Starship missions to become routine!

Open on X
ER
@EricLDaugh · 13d

🔥 AWESOME! Elon Musk's SpaceX just LAUNCHED from Texas the Starship megarocket — its first-ever orbital test flight

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Rules

If above 4 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight.