| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic by 9.0% or more | 26% | ▼ 2 | Yes 26¢ No 74¢ |
| Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99% | 18% | ▲ 2 | Yes 18¢ No 82¢ |
| Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99% | 12% | ▲ 1 | Yes 12¢ No 88¢ |
| Republican by 9.0% or more | 10% | ▲ 1 | Yes 10¢ No 90¢ |
| Democratic by 2.0% to 2.99% | 6% | ▲ 1 | Yes 6¢ No 94¢ |
| Democratic by 0.01% to 0.99% | 5% | ▲ 1 | Yes 5¢ No 95¢ |
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Recent early polls show Harris leading Dems and Vance leading GOP 123, aligning with Kalshi's Dem winner at 58.5% (avg 61%) 4, boosting prices for Democratic margins like 7-9% (11-16¢) over GOP blowouts (9¢) as markets price tight but Dem-leaning popular vote 56. Midterm context elevates key prospects 7.
Focaldata/FT poll: Harris leads Dems at 30%, Vance leads GOP at 38%, signaling frontrunners and implying close general election margins.
Confirms Harris-Vance leads in early 2028 primary poll, boosting Dem odds and favoring narrow popular vote outcomes.
Harris leads Dem field in Harvard-Harris (38%) and Echelon polls despite 2024 loss, supporting Dem favoritism in close race.
Kalshi shows Dems 58.5% to win 2028 presidency, averaging 61% with Polymarket, pricing in moderate Dem popular vote edge.
Polymarket: Dems at 64% for 2028 win, JD Vance 19%, implying market expects Dems by mid-single-digit popular vote margin.
JD Vance GOP nom 45%, Dem nom frontrunners Ossoff/AOC/Newsom at 14-16%, with Dem win 61% favoring 5-9% Dem margin.