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US Senate · SENATEME · Resolves Nov 3, 2027

Who will win the Maine Senate?

Showing: Troy Jackson · Resolves Nov 3, 2027
Troy Jackson · 58% chance▲ 1Updated 1 min ago
Feeds just now · AI summary 4h ago

Forecast

62%58%54%
Oct 11

Stats

Volume$4.2M
24h volume$3.8K
Open interest$1.2M
Days left388
Bid / ask57¢ / 58¢
Last58¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Troy Jackson58%▲ 1Yes 58¢ No 42¢
Susan Collins43%▲ 1Yes 43¢ No 57¢

Why it moved AI

  • Recent polls show Democrat Troy Jackson leading or tied with GOP Sen. Susan Collins: Wedgewood 52-48, AARP 50-47, Rasmussen 49-47.
  • Bernie Sanders stumped for Jackson in Bangor as the race tightens, per CNN and Bangor Daily News.
  • Politix+ Senate average gives Jackson a 48-46 lead over Collins.
Generated from news and X posts below · 4h ago

News

The Hill · 7h
Trump, Vance blitz Ohio as Democrats look to flip governor's mansion

The red-leaning Buckeye State governor’s mansion could flip for the first time in two decades as Democrat Amy Acton narrowly leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in recent polls of their bitter midterm battle. A new CNN poll Thursday showed Acton up 8 percentage points over Ramaswamy, after a New York Times/Siena poll found Acton ahead by...

The Hill · 9h
Murphy takes fight against Iran war to Middle East

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) this past week took his fight against the Iran war to the Middle East, seeking to expose damages caused by the conflict that he has repeatedly accused the Trump administration of trying to cover up. Murphy, who sits on the powerful Senate Foreign Relations and Appropriations committees, traveled to Qatar and...

Portland Press Herald - Maine Sunday Telegram · 15h
Troy Jackson’s sound bites won’t be enough

Opinion

The Hill · 1d
Democrats explode over Trump's Russia diesel deal

Democratic lawmakers pushed back Friday on President Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Russian oil amid global fuel shortages during U.S. military operations against Iran and the Russia-Ukraine war. The deal will permit Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government to supply 300,000 tons of diesel to the U.S. and the global marketplace. “I have just concluded...

Politico · 1d
Trump boosts a New York ally in a tough race

GOP gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman hasn’t hesitated to tie himself to the president.

Politico · 2d
Chris Murphy plans midterm travel blitz, fundraising for Nixon in Florida

The potential 2028er is hitting the campaign trail in five states this month.

Politico · 2d
Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race

It comes as the Senate battlefield tilts further into red turf.

Politico · 2d
House Democratic campaign arm says it needs $17 million, and fast

It’s the first time Democrats’ House campaign arm has put a dollar figure on its needs, as Republicans maintain a large cash advantage.

The Washington Post · 2d
Democrat has edge over Susan Collins in critical Maine Senate battle, poll finds

Democrat has edge over Susan Collins in critical Maine Senate ba

Forbes · 2d
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Jackson Leads In Maine, Hinson Ahead In Iowa (Updated Daily)

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi-gFBVV95cUxQVEpVa2lyNnExT25LM0hjMmtqallxNXdDU25GZWZXWUg0WGd0Yi1WX1ctcG5FS0ZXQi1FSHRkMXNFVWktY3F0TjQ2YXRGY0tWdnBQeWZWVEVRUUc2QTd5T2NzbTdyWUpYZkUxV2h2Wk1kNERUZ1c0RUl0U2lFVU4yOXh6RVBicFdaeG5iWkJBQUJsNnpFT251Y3dScEg4TVBVa3JWdC1oNHNwSTFOVzdKak9iNmlDSmU2ZUJ0cFp1QjlNa2plR01PSG5uaVFGOE80SXZFM0plNjFPdGE4d1VDcVRNQ1ZXWDMtVkZSWXd5ZF8wbXJ3MDlMRDBB?oc=5" target=

PBS · 4d
What happened in the first Maine Senate debate between Collins and Jackson

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxPRHh1Rk1TR05ZUXIzcWRWMTJZMUgxZjhGN0F3ZHMzSVJqOGZHRnBuNVNDYzlQUzNZSGpOSUhTaEJqOTF1ZFRhSTMzX1h3VlhHV2pUZ1ZaOGhFcWVvZDk4V2x2WUwzaFhXSXJSMTEyb3R4cXNMOGpocXlfSzRiX2w2Y2tESGJzRUh5NndPQ3I1bVlOTHdiWWVnajFWMDJMM2hCRTl6c0tBeFpwV1hkUVBOdTdB0gG3AUFVX3lxTE5ZWHF3WEdWN1ZGY2VRWGlKdkdsMHlDTzJUbFJZOGdJbmd2NVJ5YnR4ZllwaHRXSXg4QXhtRXViUlVaQ2hsSDFTRVBJS0VRaz

ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos · 4d
Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson spar over Trump, trade and abortion in Senate Debate

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxNNnBlMktCX0l6dTFDZjI3eDd0aXgyVjJVcUNubVNCb1VpQXNSWDdQV1p5SDI0WHBabDdfUmJJSWlPZUZVV1htYk5tTzB4YkFqOWJNM09zVWdVeEdzYVlyeU56OFVDT1Q1d3dxanUwVVkzbjZHQ2dtdmZ6YnhJU3lCT0pWdnhyNGFDZU1Jemd0aFl0Vlh6WjB0clRZSFBzblA2TDlhbjY0SdIBrAFBVV95cUxPZ3B0WU1fQzRCZlowU1dNVTFRRlFnVmMzT09yakxhN2RWamFrUmwtcjdsTXR1OHFvcTZ0N0ROdENJeGhkUEh0RFVZQlprczJwSU5kTWZsOXBzWn

X Feed

RP
@Rasmussen_Poll · 2d

Election 2026: Maine Senate Maine Senate: Jackson 49%, Collins 47% Democrat challenger Troy Jackson has a two-point lead over Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is seeking her sixth term in the Senate. Full story is in the comments...

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PO
@pollfinity · 3d

Jackson leads Collins by 4 points in early 2026 Maine Senate matchup. Senate Race: Maine 🔵 Troy Jackson (D): 52% 🔴 Susan Collins (R): 48% Wedgewood Polls #C | n=400 | Likely Voters | September 27–October 1, 2026

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TH
@ThePoliticalHQ · 10d

🚨Maine U.S. Senate Poll🚨 🔵 Troy Jackson - 52% 🔴 Susan Collins (Inc) - 48% Wedgewood Polls 400 Likely Voters 9/27-10/1

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DE
@DecisionDeskHQ · 10d

Maine's Senate race is a pure Toss Up. In the DDHQ Forecast, Republican Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson both have a 50% win probability. This must-win seat for both parties is the closest Senate race in our forecast.

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PO
@PollTracker2024 · 10d

AARP (Fabrizio/Impact) poll | 9/20-9/22 LV US Senate Maine 2026 🟦Troy Jackson 50% 🟥Susan Collins 47% (incumbent) Link to poll: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Ph0Eg4WPC_fqa1AVIP-VmxzmIdnMZFo0/view

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PP
@PpollingNumbers · 13d

New - Politix+ Senate average - Maine 🔵 Jackson 48% (+2) 🔴 Collins (Inc.) 46% Jackson leads 10 of 13 polls

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Rules

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Maine for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.