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US Senate · SENATEMT · Resolves Nov 3, 2027

Who will win the Montana Senate?

Showing: Kurt Alme · Resolves Nov 3, 2027
Kurt Alme · 93% chance▼ 1Updated 40 min ago
Feeds 40m ago · No AI summary yet

Forecast

96%92%88%
Sep 12Oct 8Oct 11

Stats

Volume$263.5K
24h volume$130
Open interest$128.5K
Days left388
Bid / ask92¢ / 94¢
Last94¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Kurt Alme93%▼ 1Yes 93¢ No 7¢
Seth Bodnar7%▲ 1Yes 7¢ No 93¢
Alani Bankhead1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Why it moved AI

No AI brief yet. Odds, news, and rules still load. If xAI is out of credits, the error is stored under Admin → Jobs and calls back off for 15 minutes.

Generated from news and X posts below

News

The Hill · 2h
Why North Carolina is shifting Democratic

Democrats have the wind at their backs in North Carolina, particularly in the race for Senate, where former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is up against Republican political operative Michael Whatley to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). Based on polling, nonpartisan ratings and campaign ​shifts, Cooper seems poised to win. A national Republican PAC...

Nonstop Local News Montana · 4h
Montana U.S. Senate candidates square off in debate

Montana U.S. Senate candidates square

The Hill · 8h
Murphy takes fight against Iran war to Middle East

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) this past week took his fight against the Iran war to the Middle East, seeking to expose damages caused by the conflict that he has repeatedly accused the Trump administration of trying to cover up. Murphy, who sits on the powerful Senate Foreign Relations and Appropriations committees, traveled to Qatar and...

The Hill · 1d
GOP lawmakers reject US-Russia diesel deal, Trump's Zelensky comments

Several Republicans voiced objections to the Trump administration's Russian diesel deal and President Trump's suggestion that Ukraine needs a new leader. When asked about the deal, Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said Friday he supported the president’s decision, but he doesn’t “support his decision to import it from Putin. Vladimir Putin is a butcher. He's a butcher...

Politico · 2d
Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race

It comes as the Senate battlefield tilts further into red turf.

Politico · 2d
House Democratic campaign arm says it needs $17 million, and fast

It’s the first time Democrats’ House campaign arm has put a dollar figure on its needs, as Republicans maintain a large cash advantage.

Decision Desk HQ | Substack · 2d
📈 Could Democrats actually flip Kansas’s Senate seat?

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NonStop Local Billings · 2d
Polling gives outlooks for upcoming general election in Montana

Polling gives outlooks for u

Nonstop Local News Montana · 13d
Montana Senate race: Kurt Alme tops Bodnar and Bankhead in new poll findings

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi-gFBVV95cUxOeGhwYVNNQWJGZFU3WmNaZFNDLTFNSXdVYnlieDhmYkcxdGFfMV8zRjVfVkoyeVRGS2x2OENnalRRdzh1aWIyT0Z2YTZFM0FsNmVjNXpZbkc1b0tKenViSEEtbWY0a0xBSjdVUnNsc2Jkd2pKZlJfUFJqRUJIZW9tUU5MS2VhWnZHOXlKc2hPMXVodUY0NThUYmdlSldmRDdSbFgwUTQ0bjI0NnNTUDVyZ2ZlM01YQ1pfYnVyYTllSUQ0RENrYzBuYlFMS0pqOWh6bU91a0V5U1JFaVZsb0xLcEZQeHVicGtjd0prTTExQ0dBdnlrS1pwa0ZB?oc=5" target=

X Feed

CO
@CookPolitical · 10h

Last week, The Cook Political Report moved three Senate races, all towards Democrats. Read about those changes from @JessicaTaylor: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/senate-majority-squarely-democrats-sights-kansas-moves-toss-two

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DE
@DecisionDeskHQ · 2d

DDHQ Senate Forecast Update (10/9) 🟦Democrats - 56% 🟥Republicans - 44% Democrats are favored to flip the Senate, with a projected seat count of 51. The forecast has them leading in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

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DE
@DecisionDeskHQ · 2d

Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024. Democrats haven't won a Senate race there since 1932. But Democrat Adam Hamilton runs a hair ahead of Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in DDHQ's new Kansas polling average. #KSSen

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CO
@CookPolitical · 4d

This week, we shifted three Senate races in the direction of Democrats. Here's where's our current ratings stand.

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CO
@CookPolitical · 5d

We are revising our estimate of potential Senate pickups to two to six seats for Democrats — squarely within the range of the four seats they need to net for a majority.

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CO
@CookPolitical · 5d

Today, The Cook Political Report is moving three Senate races, all towards Democrats. • Kansas from Lean R -> Toss Up • North Carolina from Lean D -> Likely D • New Hampshire from Toss Up -> Lean D Read @JessicaTaylor's full analysis: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/senate-majority-squarely-democrats-sights-kansas-moves-toss-two

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DE
@DecisionDeskHQ · 5d

Republican Kurt Alme is in a strong position to win #MTSen. This group is trying to change that by boosting independent Seth Bodnar over Democrat Alani Bankhead as Alme's main challenger. But Alme is currently about a 9 in 10 favorite to win Montana in DDHQ's forecast.

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Rules

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.