| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Cooper | 96% | 0 | Yes 96¢ No 4¢ |
| Michael Whatley | 5% | ▲ 1 | Yes 5¢ No 95¢ |
Democrats have the wind at their backs in North Carolina, particularly in the race for Senate, where former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is up against Republican political operative Michael Whatley to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). Based on polling, nonpartisan ratings and campaign shifts, Cooper seems poised to win. A national Republican PAC...
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GOP super PAC cancels spending in North Carolina Senate race
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Find our full forecast and polling averages on Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/senate
Open on XDDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: Ohio Senate 🟦 Sherrod Brown: 52% 🟥 Jon Husted: 48% Brown also leads by 2.6 points in the DDHQ polling average. Democrats need to flip four seats to win Senate control.
Open on XToday, The Cook Political Report is moving three Senate races, all towards Democrats. • Kansas from Lean R -> Toss Up • North Carolina from Lean D -> Likely D • New Hampshire from Toss Up -> Lean D Read @JessicaTaylor's full analysis: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/senate-majority-squarely-democrats-sights-kansas-moves-toss-two
Open on X#NCSEN — Michael Whatley’s campaign responds to the Senate Leadership Fund suspending ad spending in the race:
Open on XSLF pulls out of NC. One of the bigger developments on the Senate map: Dems now favored for first flip of cycle PLUS: GOP super PAC sending millions to Kansas
Open on XDDHQ POLLING UPDATE: North Carolina Senate 🟦 Roy Cooper: 49.6% 🟥 Michael Whatley: 40.5% No Republican has lost a Senate race in North Carolina since 2008. This race is seen as a must-win for Democrats. The DDHQ Forecast rates #NCSen as Likely Democratic.
Open on XIn the DDHQ Forecast, Democrats are favored to flip five seats, enough to secure a Senate majority. They have a 54% chance of winning control of the Senate. Democrats are favored in Toss Up races in Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas. North Carolina is a Likely Democratic flip.
Open on XNew AARP poll of North Carolina by Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D): #NCSEN Roy Cooper (D) 53 Michael Whatley (R) 42 Other/undecided 5 Trump net approval: -21 (Sept. 17-20; 1,115 LVs; +/-2.9%)
Open on XIf a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of North Carolina for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.