| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 22% | 0 | Yes 22¢ No 78¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 14% | 0 | Yes 14¢ No 86¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5% | ▲ 1 | Yes 5¢ No 95¢ |
| Before September | 50% | ▲ 49 | Yes 50¢ No 50¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
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Recent UAP releases and NASA comments 1278 sustain interest without evidence of alien confirmation, while official denials from AARO/NASA 1 and geopolitical pressures 36 keep short-term odds low (1¢ for Oct/Nov) but buoy longer horizons (14¢ Jan 2028, 22¢ Jan 2029) amid whistleblower/testimony buzz 4. No resolution-altering proof emerged.
NASA and AARO confirm no verifiable evidence of extraterrestrials despite UAP reports, reducing odds of imminent official confirmation.
NASA head open to extraterrestrial UAP but cites natural/human explanations, signaling no confirmation yet.
Rep. Burlison warns of rivals disclosing UFO evidence first, pressuring US but no domestic confirmation.
Potential congressional testimony on 2025 orbs could advance disclosure but remains unverified.
US officials prepare for UFO/extraterrestrial confirmation, implying no actual confirmation occurred.
Lawmaker highlights UFO transparency risks vs rivals, suggesting competition over potential alien tech.
NASA admin calls UAP a possible 'Sputnik moment' but ties to adversaries, not confirming aliens.
Sixth UAP document release includes unexplained lights, but no extraterrestrial confirmation.
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.