| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above -0.2% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above 0.1% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above -0.1% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above -0.4% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above 0.2% | 99% | 0 | Yes 99¢ No 1¢ |
| Above -0.3% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above 0.3% | 98% | ▲ 1 | Yes 98¢ No 2¢ |
| Above 0.4% | 91% | ▲ 1 | Yes 91¢ No 9¢ |
| Above 0.5% | 59% | ▲ 1 | Yes 59¢ No 41¢ |
| Above 0.6% | 14% | ▼ 4 | Yes 14¢ No 86¢ |
| Above 0.9% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 0.8% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 0.7% | 2% | ▲ 1 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
Will September inflation cement US interest rate policy for the rest of the year? Financial Times
The Week Ahead: US September CPI and PPI Set for Release, Wall Street Major Bank Earnings Season Officially Kicks Off, TSMC Earnings in Focus TradingKey
US CPI to Show Overall Inflation Boosted by Higher Gasoline Prices Bloomberg.com
September CPI is just the tip of the inflation iceberg RBC
Inflationary Spike Unfolding - September CPI Report Preview Seeking Alpha
Federal Reserve Board releases results of the 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances, which provides the public and policymakers with detailed insights into the economic condition of American families
Pantheon sees September CPI rising 0.6% as gasoline prices jump TradingView
How Fast Do Tariffs Pass Through into Consumer Prices? Liberty Street Economics
Federal Reserve Board announces enforcement action against American Express Company to address, among other things, the firm’s failure to sufficiently detect and report certain suspicious activity related to money laundering
Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
US CPI September 2026: Forecast, Core CPI and Fed Odds Admirals
The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Isabella Bank Corporation
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Fleur Capital Corporation
Tokyo core inflation rate jumps in September, bolsters case for more BOJ hikes Reuters
Consumer Price Index, New York-Newark-Jersey City — August 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics (.gov)
August CPI Seen Cooling, but Will It Prevent a Fed Rate Hike? Morningstar
**Recent X posts (late September to early October 2026) from @NickTimiraos (WSJ chief economics correspondent) highlight ongoing Fed debates around inflation, labor data, and potential rate moves.**[[1]](https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/2106019529692196921) Key themes include: - A “ho-hum” September jobs report that did little to alter the Fed’s trajectory; officials had already signaled an Octo
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.5% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.