| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 cuts | 95% | ▼ 1 | Yes 95¢ No 5¢ |
| Exactly 1 cut | 4% | ▲ 1 | Yes 4¢ No 96¢ |
| Exactly 2 cuts | 1% | ▼ 1 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Exactly 10 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 20 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 5 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 12 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 17 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 4 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 15 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 8 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 11 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 14 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 3 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 13 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 18 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 19 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 6 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 16 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 9 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 7 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
Will September inflation cement US interest rate policy for the rest of the year? Financial Times
Trump launches probe into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook Al Jazeera
Trump announces committee investigation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook SCOTUSblog
Federal Reserve Board releases results of the 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances, which provides the public and policymakers with detailed insights into the economic condition of American families
Shelton's controversial economic ideas led the Senate to block her nomination to the Fed. Now she's going to be a counselor to the Treasury secretary.
Fed's Musalem says tighter monetary policy needed to lower inflation Reuters
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A Top Fed Official Casts Further Doubt on a Rate Rise This Month The New York Times
The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026
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What makes the Federal Reserve decide to raise or lower interest rates? Chase Bank
Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for ‘Timelier’ Retreat in Inflation The New York Times
Fed raises interest rates for first time since 2023, defying Trump as inflation mounts NBC News
Federal Funds Rate History 1990 to 2026 Forbes
Federal Reserve hikes key rate for 1st time in 3 years, defying Trump demands for a cut AP News
The Fed - September 15-16, 2026 FOMC Meeting Federal Reserve (.gov)
WATCH: Warsh says 'inflation is too high' after Fed raises interest rate 1st time in 3 years PBS
No X posts yet. Live search retries after the 15-minute backoff if xAI just failed (credits included).
If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).