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Fed maintains rate 85%Starts 4%Hike 25bps 16%Exactly 0 cuts 95%Cuts 5%Exactly 1 cut 4%Cut 25bps 1%Exactly 2 cuts 1%
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Fed & Economy · KXRATECUTCOUNT · Resolves 1/1/2027

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

0%0Updated 1 min agoKalshi Yes · Exactly 9 cuts
Feeds 2h · summary never
Trade on Kalshi
OverviewNewsX FeedAI SummaryRulesRelated Markets

Forecast

6H1D1W1MALL
4%2%0%Sep 12Oct 2Oct 9

Stats

Volume$282.2K
24h volume$0
Open interest$268.3K
Days left82
Bid / ask0¢ / 0¢
Last0¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Exactly 0 cuts95%▼ 1Yes 95¢ No 5¢
Exactly 1 cut4%▲ 1Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Exactly 2 cuts1%▼ 1Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Exactly 10 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 20 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 12 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 17 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 4 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 15 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 8 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 11 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 13 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 14 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 3 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 5 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 18 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 19 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 6 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 16 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 9 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 7 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢

Why it moved AI

No AI brief yet. Odds, news, and rules still load. If xAI is out of credits, the error is stored under Admin → Jobs and calls back off for 15 minutes.

Generated from news and X posts below

News

CNBC Economy · 2d
Treasury's Bessent hires Trump's controversial former Fed board pick, Judy Shelton, as advisor

Shelton's controversial economic ideas led the Senate to block her nomination to the Fed. Now she's going to be a counselor to the Treasury secretary.

CNBC Economy · 2d
Inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs, NY Fed says

Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.

CNBC Economy · 3d
Inflation fears on the rise as one-year outlook in Fed survey hits highest level since May 2023

The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.

Chase Bank · 13d
What makes the Federal Reserve decide to raise or lower interest rates? - Chase Bank

What makes the Federal Reserve decide to raise or lower interest rates?  Chase Bank

The New York Times · Sep 22
Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for ‘Timelier’ Retreat in Inflation - The New York Times

Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for ‘Timelier’ Retreat in Inflation  The New York Times

NBC News · Sep 16
Fed raises interest rates for first time since 2023, defying Trump as inflation mounts - NBC News

Fed raises interest rates for first time since 2023, defying Trump as inflation mounts  NBC News

Forbes · Sep 16
Federal Funds Rate History 1990 to 2026 - Forbes

Federal Funds Rate History 1990 to 2026  Forbes

AP News · Sep 16
Federal Reserve hikes key rate for 1st time in 3 years, defying Trump demands for a cut - AP News

Federal Reserve hikes key rate for 1st time in 3 years, defying Trump demands for a cut  AP News

PBS · Sep 15
WATCH: Warsh says 'inflation is too high' after Fed raises interest rate 1st time in 3 years - PBS

WATCH: Warsh says 'inflation is too high' after Fed raises interest rate 1st time in 3 years  PBS

X Feed

No X posts yet. Live search retries after the 15-minute backoff if xAI just failed (credits included).

Rules

If the Fed cuts 9 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).