| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 85% | ▲ 1 | Yes 85¢ No 15¢ |
| Hike 25bps | 16% | ▼ 1 | Yes 16¢ No 84¢ |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Hike >25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Cut 25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
Fed policymakers lean against October rate hike
Current refi mortgage rates report for Oct . 2 , 2026
Will the Fed raise interest rates this year? Divided economists weigh in ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
Trump establishes committee to investigate Federal Reserve's Lisa Cook in latest effort to fire her AP News
Federal Reserve Board releases results of the 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances, which provides the public and policymakers with detailed insights into the economic condition of American families
Federal Reserve Board announces enforcement action against American Express Company to address, among other things, the firm’s failure to sufficiently detect and report certain suspicious activity related to money laundering
Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
Federal Reserve officials expect another rate hike will be needed this year, according to minutes ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026
Trump Told the Fed to Cut Rates. It Raised Them 24/7 Wall St.
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Isabella Bank Corporation
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Fleur Capital Corporation
What makes the Federal Reserve decide to raise or lower interest rates? Chase Bank
The Fed - September 15-16, 2026 FOMC Meeting Federal Reserve (.gov)
Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate, defying Trump's demands ABC7 Eyewitness News
Federal Reserve leaves interest rate unchanged in 9-3 vote ABC7 San Francisco
**Recent X posts (mostly early October 2026) show the Federal Reserve in a hawkish stance after its September 2026 FOMC meeting.** The FOMC unanimously raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%—the first hike since 2023—with most participants viewing another hike in 2026 as likely appropriate. Minutes highlighted elevated inflation (PCE around 3.7–3.8%), upside risks from ener
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.