Weak U.S. Jobs Growth Raises Pressure on the Federal Reserve Ahead of October Meeting Tekedia
Researchers found that while wealth disparities narrowed somewhat, the ability to meet debt payments deteriorated significantly.
Americans' debt problems are flashing a warning not seen since the Great Recession CNBC
Federal Reserve Board releases results of the 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances, which provides the public and policymakers with detailed insights into the economic condition of American families
Federal Reserve Board announces enforcement action against American Express Company to address, among other things, the firm’s failure to sufficiently detect and report certain suspicious activity related to money laundering
Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Isabella Bank Corporation
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Fleur Capital Corporation
What Canadians need to know about a 'technical recession' CBC
Canada’s economy stalls, posting consecutive quarterly declines The Globe and Mail
Canada enters surprise technical recession amid tariff uncertainty Reuters
What is the relationship between inflation, interest rates, and economic growth, and what does it mean for the new Federal Reserve chair? Equitable Growth
What Makes a Good Federal Reserve Chair? It Depends on Independence The Daily Economy
What is a recession? McKinsey & Company
Explainer: What is a recession? The World Economic Forum
Dating Economic Recessions in Real Time Is a Challenge Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession? NPR
Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2021 (Advance Estimate) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (.gov)
**Recent X posts on FOMC, rate cuts, inflation, and CPI (as of early October 2026) highlight cooling inflation signals, Fed caution, and retrospective critiques.** Key themes include: - **Cooling inflation data**: PCE inflation fell to 3.4% (below 3.7% expectations and the lowest since February 2026), weakening the high-inflation case and supporting a potential pause in rate hikes amid softening
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.