Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Forecast

6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

4%2%0%

Sep 12Oct 1Oct 9

Stats

Volume$524.1K

24h volume$0

Open interest$308.0K

Days left82

Bid / ask0¢ / 0¢

Last0¢

Outcomes

Outcome	Chance	24h	Price
Exactly 0 cuts	96%	▲ 1	Yes 96¢ No 4¢
Exactly 1 cut	4%	▲ 1	Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Exactly 2 cuts	1%	0	Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Exactly 19 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 13 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 18 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 12 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 3 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 6 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 9 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 4 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 10 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 17 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 7 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 5 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 14 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 11 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 8 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 20 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 15 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 16 cuts	0%	0	Yes 0¢ No 100¢

Why it moved AI

Odds held at 0%; the feed had no CPI, PCE, or jobs print.
Reuters: Fed's Musalem says tighter policy is needed to lower inflation.
Financial Times asked whether September inflation will cement the rest-of-year rate path.

Generated from news and X posts below · 6h ago

News

Financial Times · 12h

Will September inflation cement US interest rate policy for the rest of the year?

Al Jazeera · 1d

Trump launches probe into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook

SCOTUSblog · 2d

Trump announces committee investigation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook

Federal Reserve · 2d

Federal Reserve Board releases results of the 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances, which provides the public and policymakers with detailed insights into the economic condition of American families

CNBC Economy · 2d

Treasury's Bessent hires Trump's controversial former Fed board pick, Judy Shelton, as advisor

Shelton's controversial economic ideas led the Senate to block her nomination to the Fed. Now she's going to be a counselor to the Treasury secretary.

Reuters · 3d

Fed's Musalem says tighter monetary policy needed to lower inflation

Federal Reserve · 3d

Federal Reserve Board announces enforcement action against American Express Company to address, among other things, the firm’s failure to sufficiently detect and report certain suspicious activity related to money laundering

CNBC Economy · 3d

Inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs, NY Fed says

Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.

CNBC Economy · 4d

Inflation fears on the rise as one-year outlook in Fed survey hits highest level since May 2023

The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.

Federal Reserve · 4d

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026