Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.
Research links ICE enforcement surges to lasting declines in local spending, foot traffic and jobs. In Minneapolis, businesses are still recovering.
UNIVERSITY MICHIGAN 5 YR INFLATION PRELIM ACTUAL 3.5% (FORECAST 3.5%, PREVIOUS 3.4%) $MACRO
Open on XUNIVERSITY MICHIGAN 1 YR INFLATION PRELIM ACTUAL 4.7% (FORECAST 4.8%, PREVIOUS 4.6%) $MACRO
Open on XU.S. CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS AS INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISE University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 in October, missing expectations of 47.8 and declining from 48.1 in September. The current conditions index plunged to 44.7, well below forecasts of 51.0. Meanwhile, 1-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, while 5-year expectations climbed to 3.5%, signaling persistent inflation concerns among consumers.
Open on XBANK OF SPAIN UPS 2026 INFLATION FORECAST TO 3.9%, SEES 3.7% INFLATION IN 2027 FROM 2.7% || UPS 2026 ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST TO 2.6% FROM 2.3%, SEES 2.2% GROWTH IN 2027 FROM 1.7%
Open on XBank Of Spain Ups 2026 Inflation Forecast To 3.9%, Sees 3.7% Inflation In 2027 From 2.7% - Ups 2026 Economic Growth Forecast To 2.6% From 2.3%, Sees 2.2% Growth In 2027 From 1.7%
Open on XFOMC MINUTES IN FOCUS AS OCTOBER HIKE ODDS FADE Today’s FOMC minutes will be scrutinized for how firmly officials backed further rate hikes after September’s unanimous 25bp increase. October hike odds have fallen to around 20% from 55% after softer inflation and payroll data, but September’s dot plot showed 14 of 18 officials still expected another 25–50bp of tightening by end-2027. Key focus: whether officials view current policy as sufficiently restrictive and how quickly they expect further hikes.
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