| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.2% | 99% | 0 | Yes 99¢ No 1¢ |
| Above 3.1% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above 3.0% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above 3.3% | 98% | 0 | Yes 98¢ No 2¢ |
| Above 3.4% | 96% | ▲ 1 | Yes 96¢ No 4¢ |
| Above 3.5% | 87% | ▲ 1 | Yes 87¢ No 13¢ |
| Above 3.6% | 48% | 0 | Yes 48¢ No 52¢ |
| Above 3.7% | 11% | ▼ 1 | Yes 11¢ No 89¢ |
| Above 3.8% | 2% | 0 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
| Above 4.5% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.1% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.2% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.6% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.3% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.9% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.0% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 5.0% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.7% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.8% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 3.9% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.4% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
No AI brief yet. Odds, news, and rules still load. If xAI is out of credits, the error is stored under Admin → Jobs and calls back off for 15 minutes.
Xinhua
Researchers found that while wealth disparities narrowed somewhat, the ability to meet debt payments deteriorated significantly.
Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.
Research links ICE enforcement surges to lasting declines in local spending, foot traffic and jobs. In Minneapolis, businesses are still recovering.
Fair challenge,, you and judge yourself. Our methodology is public and the correlation is documented here. https://blog.truflation.com/truflation-leading-indicator-of-the-official-bls-cpi/ Live read this week: 2.86% to 2.92%. BLS August: 3.4%. September CPI prints 14 Oct. We'll post the side-by-side either way. And here you can sign up for our forecast slowing our data mapping it to BLS weights release 24 hours early.
Open on XFedWatch Tool https://quiktweet.com/390360 #QuikTweets via @QuikStrike1 @CMEGroup 19% chance of another (25 BPS) interest rate-hike, to curb inflation, as per the Chicago CME, using 30-day fed futures to predict the FOMC
Open on XFed minutes: "most" officials see another hike in 2026, inflation risks tilted higher, several call rates only mildly restrictive. Stocks & gold barely moved. BTC ~$83.4K. Next: CPI Oct 14, FOMC Oct 27–28. Another hike priced in? 🐱 @federalreserve https://beincrypto.com/fed-minutes-another-rate-hike-2026/
Open on XTIMIRAOS: WEAK JOBS REPORT CLEARS PATH FOR FED PAUSE The September jobs report gives the Fed more room to hold rates steady in October, with hiring slowing and unemployment edging up to 4.2%. With little evidence of labor-market inflation pressure, attention now shifts to September CPI on October 14, which could be more decisive for the next rate move.
Open on XThis ho-hum labor market report doesn't really change the story for the Fed, whose senior officials had gone out of their way this week to signal that an October rate hike probably wasn't their base-case. The biggest development was what it didn't show: few signs from wages or the unemployment rate that the labor market is tightening in ways that would add meaningfully to price pressures. The September CPI, due Oct. 14, was always going to be more important than this report, which nevertheless takes some of the hawkish edge off of the recent repricing of the Fed's path in markets.
Open on XIf the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.6% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown