If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.