| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Herrera | 66% | 0 | Yes 66¢ No 34¢ |
| Katy Padilla Stout | 36% | 0 | Yes 36¢ No 64¢ |
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Market favors Herrera at 66¢ due to Trump 47 and Liberty Caucus endorsements 6, strong fundraising 1, despite Dem ad buys/targeting 12 and negative stories on his past comments 35 highlighting polarization in suddenly competitive race 28.
Dems' super PAC reserves ads in TX-23; Padilla Stout adds national staff, Herrera raises $600k+ with GOP PAC support, boosting his resources.
Cook PVI shifts to Likely R from Solid R; Buttigieg campaigns with Stout; Herrera skips interviews, highlighting Dem momentum.
Stout positions as Uvalde advocate against Herrera's past misogynistic comments on women/children, potentially swaying moderates.
Trump voices support for Herrera at San Antonio rally, energizing GOP base in competitive district.
Revives Herrera's controversial past remarks on unknown kids and family as 'overhead,' risking voter backlash.
Republican Liberty Caucus endorses Herrera as principled fighter, adding conservative credibility.
Trump explicitly backs Herrera in TX-23 alongside other TX GOP, signaling high-level endorsement.
Notes race as somewhat competitive post-Gonzales scandal despite Trump +15 district, Herrera favored.
If the House member sworn in for TX-23 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.