| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | 42% | ▼ 2 | Yes 42¢ No 58¢ |
| Gemini | 40% | ▲ 1 | Yes 40¢ No 60¢ |
| ChatGPT | 12% | ▲ 1 | Yes 12¢ No 88¢ |
| Grok | 4% | 0 | Yes 4¢ No 96¢ |
| Muse Spark | 3% | ▲ 1 | Yes 3¢ No 97¢ |
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No X posts yet. Live search retries after the 15-minute backoff if xAI just failed (credits included).
If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.