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Space · KXSPACEXSTARSHIP · Resolves Nov 20, 2026

SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

Showing: Before Nov 13, 2026 · Resolves Nov 20, 2026
Before Nov 13, 2026 · 31% chance▼ 3Updated 52 min ago
Feeds 50m ago · AI summary 50m ago

Forecast

98%60%21%
Sep 30Oct 8Oct 11

Stats

Volume$8.9K
24h volume$1.1K
Open interest$4.1K
Days left33
Bid / ask30¢ / 31¢
Last31¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Before Dec 11, 202694%▲ 1Yes 94¢ No 6¢
Before Nov 27, 202683%0Yes 83¢ No 17¢
Before Nov 13, 202631%▼ 3Yes 31¢ No 69¢
Before Oct 30, 20262%▲ 1Yes 2¢ No 98¢
Before Oct 16, 20261%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Why it moved AI

  • SpaceX gearing up for first Starship launch from Florida's 39A (Space).
  • Starship 40 returns to Starbase after 2.5-month journey; arrives at production site (X: @RGVaerialphotos, @StarshipGazer 10/10/26).
  • Pad 1 launch mount, flame deflector, SQD arm under construction at Sanchez lot (X: @RGVaerialphotos).
Generated from news and X posts below · 50m ago

News

Spaceflight Now · 2d
SpaceX launches 21 data satellites for the Space Development Agency

Liftoff of the Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California carrying satellites for the Space Development Agency’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture constellation came at 12:39 a.m. PDT (3:39 EDT / 0739 UTC). <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/09/spacex-to-make-another-attempt-to-launch-21-data-satellites-for-space-development-agency/" ti

SpaceNews · 6d
Resource competition intensifies with surge in megaconstellations

<img width="1024" height="623" src="https://i0.wp.com/spacenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/spacex-odc.jpeg?fit=1024%2C623&ssl=1" class="attachment-rss-image-size size-rss-image-size wp-post-image" alt="SpaceX Starlnk" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/spacenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/spacex-odc.jpeg?w=2500&ssl=1 2500w, https://i0.wp.com/

Florida Today · 6d
SpaceX Starship reaching orbit, NASA's Crew-13 launch top space newsletter

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAJBVV95cUxNSXl6VktGMGc3Q1NfbUVZYjFIc1ZkYmp5R3Y2VkhRODNUd1hfdmxnNGVXeVg4TTdxTmNLUEpXWDFYMnhSUldBYXg1OUVxeXBnN29JVEYzUm03RDdSaVVndE5GRmYwdk0xUHpselFONzNweTIyUmFBVXd1UjA3Y2I2SkVLWTNjaHVYdHk0WVE3a2QyUU1aUmt1ZkU3ZkZlMUMwdnNJUHk0NzlGRElvOXp5UWhpOGhmOHR4Z0llTTZ3NWhmNUNBNFpZOEN1dmo4Sk1JVFRkeG9BQlNrZUpQV0tKSzJJV0lSNEp3MnEyeVh3cGtBeERPRG1VVER0aV9GZFJ1?oc=5"

Spaceflight Now · 7d
SpaceX scrubs launch attempt for 21 data transport satellites for the Space Development Agency

The Tranche 1 Transporter Layer A mission is the fourth flight supporting the Space Development Agency’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture constellation. The next launch attempt could come as soon as Saturday. <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/04/live-coverage-spacex-to-launch-21-data-transport-satellites-for-the-space-development-agency/" title="SpaceX s

Spaceflight Now · 10d
Falcon Heavy flies its first mission for U.S. spy satellite agency

The 14th Falcon Heavy rocket is scheduled to blast off on a clandestine mission from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center at 11:54 p.m. EDT (0354 UTC).

Spaceflight Now · 10d
Fresh crew takes off for six-month stay aboard space station

Strapped into a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule, Crew 13 commander Jessica Watkins, pilot Luke Delaney, Russian cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov and Canadian astronaut Joshua Kutryk blasted off from pad 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station at 11:10 a.m. EDT. <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/01/fresh-crew-takes-off-for-six-month-stay-aboard-space-station/" title=

Spaceflight Now · 10d
Launch preview: More than 100 spacecraft hitch a ride to orbit on SpaceX’s Transporter-18

The mission carried 130 payloads onboard the Falcon 9 rocket heading to a Sun-synchronous orbit. Liftoff from pad 4E at Vandenberg Space Force Base happened at 11:32 a.m. PDT (2:32 p.m. EDT / 1832 UTC). <a class="mh-excerpt-more" href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/10/01/live-coverage-ai-datacenter-prototypes-energy-redirection-demonstrators-and-more-launching-on-spacexs-transporter-18/" title="

CNBC · 13d
SpaceX launches its massive Starship rocket into orbit for the first time

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxPc2RkMkI4ZlBkTUhDYWZkZVBWa0M1c2JVZ2NMS1FuMkhqa3RjSERxMi1XWXNLUkNJZTNJaUMzZ2hJbWtGV19ES1RJazJ2YlVLTGpGQnpEcFFPaENXeUdyUVZZUlJkT1hJUWVISjhHQW5wb0JueUR3QjJoS3dXS3lBeUktQTAzLWN6TGd6VjVIem9EZ1IwekdLaUtHNFJtNHhkclHSAacBQVVfeXFMTy1yTXk1Qk0wcEZ2QnhELWJQOVZtaEZFUHozUFd6TnNqNjFmNTVaNW1qRk41Yi1GeW8tZXhXMnlhZjVUQWFsSzJPZEVvNUtONjQxVTlsRkItbUI3aHVtVU

X Feed

ST
@StarshipGazer · 6h

Some more views of Starship 40 returning to Starbase. 10/10/26

Open on X
RG
@RGVaerialphotos · 10h

Pad 1 launch mount, flame deflector, and SQD arm under construction at the Sanchez lot. Starbase Weekly is live in 3 hours!

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RG
@RGVaerialphotos · 17h

Ship 40 has arrived at the production site. Welcome home, Starship, and a huge congratulations to the @SpaceX team! What an incredible 2.5-month journey.

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ST
@StarshipGazer · 19h

Up close with Starship 40 rolling by while returning to Starbase after an incredible journey around the world. 10/10/26

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ST
@StarshipGazer · 21h

A wider view of Starship 40 ready to return home. 10/10/26

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ST
@StarshipGazer · 21h

Starship 40 with the Stars and Stripes ready to roll from the Port of Brownsville back to Starbase. 10/10/26

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NA
@NASAWatch · 1d

From @WHOI - "Sunita “Suni” Williams @Astro_Suni is a recently-retired NASA astronaut, U.S. Navy test pilot, and commander of the International Space Station. Over the course of her career, she spent 608 days in space and completed nine spacewalks—the most spacewalk time by a woman. Williams is also a member of the WHOI Corporation and the recipient of our 2025 Science Champion Award. So how has outer space changed her perspective our ocean planet? Find out from Oceanus":

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Rules

If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX