| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 11, 2026 | 94% | ▲ 1 | Yes 94¢ No 6¢ |
| Before Nov 27, 2026 | 83% | 0 | Yes 83¢ No 17¢ |
| Before Nov 13, 2026 | 32% | ▼ 11 | Yes 32¢ No 68¢ |
| Before Oct 30, 2026 | 2% | 0 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
| Before Oct 16, 2026 | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
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If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Nov 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX