| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic by 9.0% or more | 26% | ▼ 2 | Yes 26¢ No 74¢ |
| Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99% | 18% | ▲ 2 | Yes 18¢ No 82¢ |
| Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99% | 12% | ▲ 1 | Yes 12¢ No 88¢ |
| Republican by 9.0% or more | 10% | ▲ 1 | Yes 10¢ No 90¢ |
| Democratic by 2.0% to 2.99% | 6% | ▲ 1 | Yes 6¢ No 94¢ |
| Republican by 6.0% to 6.99% | 4% | ▲ 1 | Yes 4¢ No 96¢ |
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Recent early polls show Harris leading Dems and Vance leading GOP 123, aligning with Kalshi's Dem winner at 58.5% (avg 61%) 4, boosting prices for Democratic margins like 7-9% (11-16¢) over GOP blowouts (9¢) as markets price tight but Dem-leaning popular vote 56. Midterm context elevates key prospects 7.
Focaldata/FT poll: Harris leads Dems at 30%, Vance leads GOP at 38%, signaling frontrunners and implying close general election margins.
Confirms Harris-Vance leads in early 2028 primary poll, boosting Dem odds and favoring narrow popular vote outcomes.
Harris leads Dem field in Harvard-Harris (38%) and Echelon polls despite 2024 loss, supporting Dem favoritism in close race.
Kalshi shows Dems 58.5% to win 2028 presidency, averaging 61% with Polymarket, pricing in moderate Dem popular vote edge.
Polymarket: Dems at 64% for 2028 win, JD Vance 19%, implying market expects Dems by mid-single-digit popular vote margin.
JD Vance GOP nom 45%, Dem nom frontrunners Ossoff/AOC/Newsom at 14-16%, with Dem win 61% favoring 5-9% Dem margin.
If a member of the Republican Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 6.00-6.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress. If multiple certificates of ascertainment are sent to Congress for a state, the one Congress counts is used. If Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one is used. Votes cast for a candidate under multiple party nominations are aggregated. If the winner changes party affiliation between the election and being sworn in, the market resolves based on their Election Day party. If no party wins the popular vote (exact tie at 0.00%), all markets resolve to No.