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US Senate · SENATEIA · Resolves Nov 3, 2027

Who will win the Iowa Senate?

Showing: Josh Turek · Resolves Nov 3, 2027
Josh Turek · 43% chance▼ 1Updated just now
Feeds 1h ago · AI summary 3h ago

Forecast

48%42%36%
Sep 12Oct 7Oct 11

Stats

Volume$2.6M
24h volume$30.3K
Open interest$1.5M
Days left388
Bid / ask42¢ / 43¢
Last43¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Ashley Hinson58%▲ 1Yes 58¢ No 42¢
Josh Turek43%▼ 1Yes 43¢ No 57¢

Why it moved AI

  • Suffolk poll: Turek (D) 48-44 Hinson (IAPolls2022)
  • Rasmussen poll: Turek 47-43 (ThePoliticalHQ)
  • Fox News poll: Turek leads 49-47
Generated from news and X posts below · 3h ago

News

The Hill · 2h
Why North Carolina is shifting Democratic

Democrats have the wind at their backs in North Carolina, particularly in the race for Senate, where former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is up against Republican political operative Michael Whatley to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). Based on polling, nonpartisan ratings and campaign ​shifts, Cooper seems poised to win. A national Republican PAC...

The Hill · 8h
Murphy takes fight against Iran war to Middle East

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) this past week took his fight against the Iran war to the Middle East, seeking to expose damages caused by the conflict that he has repeatedly accused the Trump administration of trying to cover up. Murphy, who sits on the powerful Senate Foreign Relations and Appropriations committees, traveled to Qatar and...

The Gazette · 2d
‘Prairie populist’ Josh Turek looking for U.S. Senate win

‘Prairie populist’ Josh Tur

Politico · 2d
Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race

It comes as the Senate battlefield tilts further into red turf.

The Hill · 2d
Hinson leads Iowa Senate contest as Sand holds edge for governor: Poll

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxQRURzZG1GYU84Ty1IR3dVYnFmSk8xWDJOSWlpX1AtSkttNEF5SHhrMlVPTXhhUjdEWjdXeHZBaks5ZlhKcERoWEdDcUlZcWZqZ1VPRXQ2ODRkVHpKU1dlR3pIZlJ0NS1hRHFla0pfSG9qa3hNMjBvT0hhY2ctTDFLOEFoNWw3UdIBiwFBVV95cUxNR0xaTkEtZFpVb3V3S3BaMEdUYkg5VVB2Z3ByT2hfQzFrZU9wd2dvVk1OOC1QdUhNaUcxcUFmWmpNNGZraTNIT2hUUVJTVFNlS1lvd3VrcTJtcHFHX0I5cmhPd2wwMDJLRmdGSnllYjN1empmUVc3eTFhdm

KCCI · 3d
Fact-checking Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek in first Iowa US Senate debate

Fact-checking Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek in first Iowa US Senat

The Des Moines Register · 3d
Hinson, Turek spar on immigration, ethics in Iowa's US Senate debate

Hinson, Turek spar on immigration, ethi

PBS · 4d
WATCH: U.S. Senate candidates Hinson, Turek debate in Iowa

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxNVXBDRkM4V1lfQU15cHVRNHJHLURmQlVfMkxGejB6eUdkMTdVUmpnM0FPZGlpNVRQQ3pGdXFIeXIzYWdQdDdfel9aNFg0VFBtaGNzMXNSd19IRWNWSjUtYVJfSHpjdHRMSUlGU1NmbHJsdGwxT0JTbV81akdtT25uQXBCT1A5c0NCTEIyMTRRcTZ6STc3T2xrQ01rYTdxNFHSAaQBQVVfeXFMTlVlc1dnZE9RV2M1NFptaHlyMDZjUm44T2xYZHZKSEQwOFRDVTZoQVNJY0lvTUREcm4yWDRXcmdObnp1ZWFoSU1WNWZ0NjNONHBpeWRYZmRTZnhnSm5YUEIxYl

The Hill · 4d
Sand holds 12-point lead over Lahn for Iowa governor while Hinson trails Turek in Senate race: Poll

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifEFVX3lxTE5XbF9YSW9EckxhMGtfaWF3Mk9IZ0VLZGZQa3R0OWNtNlBSTXgzeVBfM05QRV9UV050V1NHbjFacFhkZVktMHBnUldnYUhzYm4zekh6QTBYZWZzZlptdWZqX0R1cFprVDUyYU90WXJpdF9lNVpLODJGZ2xCZmTSAYIBQVVfeXFMUE0tSjZraUJhRTV4UG1KbGRxcjQ3QnZ5NmhkRmY3SkJCc0RkUTRHVHZSTklmSHdQRUNaYndHX0VwVHFJelpEcjJ6YWQzbks0SkEyTWY0Y3BCWWp4WExiRzRuNkVONWhRWlBXOEpqVzVLWXR3VUpTejAwZENPMFV2Q053dw?oc=

The Des Moines Register · 6d
Where Hinson, Turek, Laehn stand on Iran, tariffs in Iowa Senate race

Where Hinson, Turek, Laeh

NBC News · 12d
The Data Dive: Steve Kornacki on whether Democrats can loosen Trump’s hold on Iowa

The Data Dive: Steve Kornacki on whether Democrats can loos

Iowa Public Radio · Sep 18
Democrats aim to flip Iowa's U.S. Senate seat in an increasingly competitive race

Democrats aim to flip Iowa's U.S. Senate seat in an increasingl

X Feed

IA
@IAPolls2022 · 4d

IOWA POLL - Senate 🟦 Josh Turek: 48% (+7) 🟥 Ashley Hinson: 44% (-1) (Was Hinson +4 in August) Suffolk (A) | 10/1-4 | LV

Open on X
TH
@ThePoliticalHQ · 9d

🚨Iowa U.S. Senate Poll🚨 🔵 Josh Turek - 47% 🔴 Ashley Hinson - 43% Rasmussen (🔴) 1,048 Likely Voters 9/28-9/30 (🔴 denotes GOP pollster)

Open on X
TA
@Taniel · 10d

Fox News releases two new polls. —Iowa: Josh Turek (D) up 49/47 for Senate. —Texas: James Talarico (D) up 51/49 for Senate. That's among likely voters. Striking (and against CW?), Dems lead by more among registered voters: Talarico +7, Turek +4.

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Rules

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.