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US Senate · SENATEKS · Resolves Nov 3, 2027

Who will win the Kansas Senate?

Showing: Adam Hamilton · Resolves Nov 3, 2027
Adam Hamilton · 38% chance0Updated just now
Feeds 2h ago · AI summary 3h ago

Forecast

41%29%17%
Sep 12Oct 7Oct 11

Stats

Volume$2.0M
24h volume$37.7K
Open interest$1.4M
Days left388
Bid / ask37¢ / 38¢
Last38¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Roger Marshall63%▲ 1Yes 63¢ No 37¢
Adam Hamilton38%0Yes 38¢ No 62¢

Why it moved AI

  • Cook Political Report moved Kansas Senate from Lean R to Toss Up, calling it Democrats’ Cinderella story.
  • YouGov poll shows Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Sen. Roger Marshall 48-45.
  • Democrats dropped $5M into the race, per Politico.
  • NYT and CNBC note the race as a surprising battleground in deep-red Kansas.
Generated from news and X posts below · 3h ago

News

The Hill · 2h
Why North Carolina is shifting Democratic

Democrats have the wind at their backs in North Carolina, particularly in the race for Senate, where former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is up against Republican political operative Michael Whatley to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). Based on polling, nonpartisan ratings and campaign ​shifts, Cooper seems poised to win. A national Republican PAC...

Central Oregon Daily · 5h
Kansas Democratic Senate nominee Adam Hamilton on the direction of the party

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAJBVV95cUxOanRnbTVGOVpNbWFLZElBSTlmdjFPZXlmN1VqdXZqeG9id29DUnk2QThuQ3pjd3p4eE5uYm1IVW45MmM0WHhxclFTYThJNzQ3NU1vNTU3R1dQSFpEOTZnZkw5SU1ZWDZOMFZ1YTdoU0l1bDdvRmROaW84eVdfTmYtb01ST3pIVnhSTzNtT2paWUFWMUxRQ2cydU9iRlJaY0lhQzA2dUdsOV9nVTV6M0hXVmJhUlBLaUp3cXNuUnZmY2psYUdtbU9KNDFZRm9aVHVXelBSWEk0dlVnSXF0T0kyMTNIQUQ0VFVYVnlnZnBRQTZvQWNHWVVFeDQzZVN5Y0p1di03VH

The Hill · 8h
Murphy takes fight against Iran war to Middle East

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) this past week took his fight against the Iran war to the Middle East, seeking to expose damages caused by the conflict that he has repeatedly accused the Trump administration of trying to cover up. Murphy, who sits on the powerful Senate Foreign Relations and Appropriations committees, traveled to Qatar and...

The Washington Post · 1d
Why former Republican governors are backing a Democrat for Senate in a red state

Why former Republican governors are backing a Democrat for Senate in a

CNBC · 5d
Why deep-red Kansas has become an unexpected Senate battleground

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxQeUcxMzRYWmVibUFYcFVWY3JHcGFteWdlSVc5ZTAwSVdTdm9BQ1ppRWJTd25DUVJoWVJLOGZPSGNNQ3VpeE90bzN4VGZOVnhvS1hnUklNc091MEdydy1QTUJwdnNhNUt5ZkM1Nk9TenJZT01pRVN4OHhtSkJPakZCak1GVdIBiAFBVV95cUxNOFYwTk5nV0t1MUptY0owdlczY09uVkVpelg4TElFTmY2bW1lT3NiOVdDUGMxMmZYSTVOZkJZRjB5cS1DeUh3RURqVlkzRzloSmhYZ0lNRU5nS2NWUllWejhMbVlKX1VHNllXNHo5cXBlMnhvVl9mRUNMYk1RRz

X Feed

DE
@DecisionDeskHQ · 2d

The DDHQ Forecast still gives Marshall about a 2 in 3 chance of reelection. Why Kansas is on the board, plus the generic ballot and control of Congress: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/polls-senate-kansas-marshall-hamilton-2026-midterms-house-forecast-congress

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DE
@DecisionDeskHQ · 2d

Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024. Democrats haven't won a Senate race there since 1932. But Democrat Adam Hamilton runs a hair ahead of Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in DDHQ's new Kansas polling average. #KSSen

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PR
@PredictIt · 4d

.@CookPolitical moved the Kansas' Senate race to Toss Up on Tuesday, calling it “Democrats’ Cinderella story of the cycle.” Traders aren’t there yet. Sen. Roger Marshall (R) is at 65¢ to hold the seat. Adam Hamilton (D) is up to 38¢, from 34¢ last Thursday. #SenateControl

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CO
@CookPolitical · 5d

Read the full analysis from @JessicaTaylor and read about our three race rating changes. https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/senate-majority-squarely-democrats-sights-kansas-moves-toss-two

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TA
@Taniel · 5d

YouGov has Adam Hamilton leading 48/45 in the Kansas Senate race in a new poll. Just as @CookPolitical moves the race to a toss-up.

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CO
@CookPolitical · 5d

Today, The Cook Political Report is moving three Senate races, all towards Democrats. • Kansas from Lean R -> Toss Up • North Carolina from Lean D -> Likely D • New Hampshire from Toss Up -> Lean D Read @JessicaTaylor's full analysis: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/senate-majority-squarely-democrats-sights-kansas-moves-toss-two

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Rules

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Kansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.