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US Senate · CONTROLS · Resolves Feb 1, 2027

Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

Showing: Republican Party · Resolves Feb 1, 2027
Republican Party · 40% chance0Updated just now
Feeds 14m ago · AI summary 6m ago

Forecast

59%46%33%Jul 31Oct 6Oct 11

Stats

Volume$7.7M
24h volume$108.9K
Open interest$4.9M
Days left113
Bid / ask39¢ / 40¢
Last40¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Democratic Party61%0Yes 61¢ No 39¢
Republican Party40%0Yes 40¢ No 60¢

Why it moved AI

  • Politico: Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race
  • PhillyBurbs: Latest polls and forecasts for 2026 midterms
  • ABC News: Republicans spotlight Abdul El-Sayed as midterm focus
Generated from news and X posts below · 6m ago

News

The Hill · 3h
Trump, Vance blitz Ohio as Democrats look to flip governor's mansion

The red-leaning Buckeye State governor’s mansion could flip for the first time in two decades as Democrat Amy Acton narrowly leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in recent polls of their bitter midterm battle. A new CNN poll Thursday showed Acton up 8 percentage points over Ramaswam

The Hill · 4h
Murphy takes fight against Iran war to Middle East

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), this past week took his fight against the Iran war to the Middle East, seeking to expose damages caused by the conflict that he has repeatedly accused the Trump administration of trying to cover up. Murphy, who sits on the powerful Senate Foreign Rel

Politico · 17h
Trump announces Katie Bailey as new chief of White House-Hill relations

The longtime Republican Hill staffer takes up the role after James Braid’s departure.

The Hill · 20h
GOP lawmakers reject US-Russia diesel deal, Trump's Zelensky comments

Several Republicans voiced objections to the Trump administration Russian diesel deal and President Trump's suggestion that Ukraine needed a new leader. When asked about the deal, Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said on Friday he supported the president’s decision but he doesn’t “suppo

The Hill · 1d
Democrats explode over Trump's Russia diesel deal

Democratic lawmakers pushed back Friday on President Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Russian oil amid global fuel shortages during U.S. military operations against Iran and the Russia-Ukraine war. The deal will permit Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government to supply

Politico · 2d
Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race

It comes as the Senate battlefield tilts further into red turf.

Politico · 2d
House Democratic campaign arm says it needs $17 million, and fast

It’s the first time Democrats’ House campaign arm has put a dollar figure on its needs, as Republicans maintain a large cash advantage.

X Feed

No X posts yet. Live search retries after the 15-minute backoff if xAI just failed (credits included).

Rules

If the Republican Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. Senate. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the President pro tempore of the Senate on February 1, 2027.