| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.4% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above -0.3% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above -0.1% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above 0.1% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above 0.0% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above -0.2% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above 0.3% | 98% | ▲ 1 | Yes 98¢ No 2¢ |
| Above 0.2% | 99% | ▲ 1 | Yes 99¢ No 1¢ |
| Above 0.4% | 91% | ▲ 2 | Yes 91¢ No 9¢ |
| Above 0.5% | 61% | 0 | Yes 61¢ No 39¢ |
| Above 0.6% | 15% | ▼ 2 | Yes 15¢ No 85¢ |
| Above 0.8% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 0.7% | 1% | ▼ 1 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 0.9% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.
Annual CPI inflation su
Bureau
U.S. CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS AS INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISE University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 in October, missing expectations of 47.8 and declining from 48.1 in September. The current conditions index plunged to 44.7, well below forecasts of 51.0. Meanwhile, 1-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, while 5-year expectations climbed to 3.5%, signaling persistent inflation concerns among consumers.
Open on XFED'S MUSALEM SAYS THE ECONOMY IS PRETTY STRONG RIGHT NOW AND THE BEST THING THE FED CAN DO IS LOWER INFLATION, ADDING THAT THE JOB MARKET IS OVERALL BALANCED AND STABLE WITH NO NEED TO COOL IT TO GET INFLATION DOWN, THOUGH THERE IS A RISK CONSUMER VIGOR COULD WANE AND CONTACTS ARE MOSTLY WORRIED ABOUT INFLATION RATHER THAN THE JOB MARKET.
Open on XFED'S MUSALEM SAYS THAT TO BRING INFLATION BACK TO TARGET 'MORE MONETARY POLICY FIRMING WILL BE REQUIRED' AND THAT THE CURRENT LEVEL OF INFLATION REQUIRES THE FED TO THINK ABOUT RATE INCREASES, WHILE ADDING THAT HE GOES INTO ALL MEETINGS WITH AN OPEN MIND.
Open on XIf the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.4% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.