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Fed & Economy · KXCPICORE · Resolves Oct 21, 2026

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in September?

Showing: Above 0.3% · Resolves Oct 21, 2026
Above 0.3% · 8% chance0Updated 10 min ago
Feeds 42m ago · AI summary 2h ago

Forecast

12%8%4%
Oct 11

Stats

Volume$127.3K
24h volume$2.1K
Open interest$99.8K
Days left3
Bid / ask7¢ / 8¢
Last7¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Above 0.0%97%0Yes 97¢ No 3¢
Above 0.1%79%0Yes 79¢ No 21¢
Above 0.2%37%▲ 1Yes 37¢ No 63¢
Above 0.3%8%0Yes 8¢ No 92¢
Above 0.8%1%▼ 1Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 1.0%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 0.9%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 0.7%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 0.4%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 0.5%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 0.6%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Why it moved AI

  • Bloomberg: US Core CPI tops forecasts, bolstering case for rate hike.
  • Investor's Business Daily: Hot CPI inflation seals Fed rate hike.
  • Fed’s Musalem: Current inflation requires considering rate hikes; rates ought to rise in 6-9 months.
  • @DeItaone: U. Michigan inflation expectations rise as sentiment falls to 46.3.
Generated from news and X posts below · 2h ago

News

CNBC Economy · 4d
Inflation fears on the rise as one-year outlook in Fed survey hits highest level since May 2023

The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.

CNBC · Jul 14
Consumer prices rose 3.5% annually in June, less than expected as energy prices eased

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxNVUlRVno2bmpjLWRiYnV1M2VxVDZPTGVWa0I4Wk9tY0JHajgxaWcyeUpDbDI5THZKQVBhcEx6WFo1RmszaEh0R19zNU85cXFmOVlxNjB5QWRvNTJncnFZUndDUTVXWXg1Rk5DQTRPREF4OV9DQjRsMVYxV3QxOTY3cnBpWXhFM2lLSVFMMNIBkgFBVV95cUxOVmZJaUpQd0wwYXJrSmp0eVlGbjV6eWhkNGxtZEd1aTlWb2x1cjNNa09ZSnFyMzlpUzRuMV95VW9oQjBXVUlranJLelhyYmVPLTB4UTBqbDZTQ2YtREtSMnVCV1hRbWE3cFJOLU53UkJYeG9OX0

FactSet Insight · Jul 13
Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2026 is Projected to Rise 3.8% Year-Over-Year

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxPdHh1T0lSb21sUWVFcGMyN3JIOWpwclZjczFfb05LNk9qRHV5NWlKaXVMZnJPOGJvMTNqbkNTbV9NWlZvQWZQRkJyVFdpbzBSYXR5REFmeEtQTnFiQ2NJc1VNaDNYRDE4OUZJQ2NiZUlLWWF2MFY5LTdMY1YtV3ZPZFlhYkd1YW5rSmpFRy01T0g3Ym83M2ROdkpzLUl0T2l0ZXZqUVZ5Vmt5QdIBugFBVV95cUxONWhGWGk0Y2VWaFluZS1xNWF2bnJpWWVld3paRGxYNGE5Smw5ZDNuNWxST2gxcDQ2THBETC1SZWQ5bWRYeW9kSzdTOXVROWZpbFVlWFBycU

TradingView · Jun 10
CPI Report: Annual Inflation Rate Comes In At 4.2% In May, Highest Since April 2023

CPI Report: Annual Inflation Rate Co

FactSet Insight · Jun 9
Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2026 is Projected to Rise 4.2% Year-Over-Year

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxNaEtqM192dEM1a3ZqOFBnbXdyNzczN0Z2dGlsaVBpeE85ZXVyT2NUMURIYm1aeXdMeFFOblhxUmdTWWdvZkd5c0JVbHhSRkIwRkw2NXN5V2NKbGM0OFJsSlpNN0tDVGtWWjJULWFVdk5aTnhNRWVMeVZmV2txMTNHOWdjdjh3VHJ6VFF2blBLYmtqUjEzdTdxR0EyckI1VHZaV3ZSZVJfdTPSAbgBQVVfeXFMT3RnbmloV3Y5eXVtUFZyN1kwV0k2bUJicUlNMC1BZDZPNVZnTzZaMkg0QmxsYl9mNnBaM3hfUmw5Qy1qRjgtLTZUM3FXRzQ0NWZOZXJhSkdEd2

X Feed

FI
@FirstSquawk · 1d

Egypt's yearly urban consumer price inflation slows to 13.9% in September

Open on X
DE
@DeItaone · 2d

U.S. CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS AS INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISE University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 in October, missing expectations of 47.8 and declining from 48.1 in September. The current conditions index plunged to 44.7, well below forecasts of 51.0. Meanwhile, 1-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, while 5-year expectations climbed to 3.5%, signaling persistent inflation concerns among consumers.

Open on X
FI
@FirstSquawk · 2d

NORWAY (SEP) CPI YOY ACTUAL: 3.4% VS 3.3% PREVIOUS;EST 3.6%

Open on X
FI
@FirstSquawk · 2d

NORWAY (SEP) CPI MOM ACTUAL: 0.5% VS -0.3% PREVIOUS

Open on X
FI
@FirstSquawk · 2d

NORWAY (SEP) CPI UNDERLYING YOY ACTUAL: 3.0% VS 3.0% PREVIOUS;EST 3.1%

Open on X
FI
@financialjuice · 2d

NORWEGIAN CPI YOY ACTUAL 3.4% (FORECAST 3.6%, PREVIOUS 3.3%) $MACRO

Open on X
FI
@FirstSquawk · 3d

FED'S MUSALEM SAYS THE ECONOMY IS PRETTY STRONG RIGHT NOW AND THE BEST THING THE FED CAN DO IS LOWER INFLATION, ADDING THAT THE JOB MARKET IS OVERALL BALANCED AND STABLE WITH NO NEED TO COOL IT TO GET INFLATION DOWN, THOUGH THERE IS A RISK CONSUMER VIGOR COULD WANE AND CONTACTS ARE MOSTLY WORRIED ABOUT INFLATION RATHER THAN THE JOB MARKET.

Open on X
LI
@LiveSquawk · 3d

Fed’s Musalem: Current Inflation Level Requires Fed To Consider Rate Hikes - Rates ‘Ought To Be Going Up’ In Next 6-9 Months - Open Minded When Going Into All Meetings - Contacts Are Mostly Worried About Inflation, Doesn’t See Job Market Worries - Economy Is Pretty Strong Right Now

Open on X

Rules

If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for September 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above 0.3%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Please note that the value of the Underlying is the single-decimal value reported by the BLS. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.