| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.1% | 98% | ▼ 1 | Yes 98¢ No 2¢ |
| Above 2.2% | 97% | ▼ 1 | Yes 97¢ No 3¢ |
| Above 2.3% | 89% | ▲ 7 | Yes 89¢ No 11¢ |
| Above 2.4% | 49% | 0 | Yes 49¢ No 51¢ |
| Above 2.5% | 13% | ▲ 1 | Yes 13¢ No 87¢ |
| Above 2.7% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 2.9% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 3.4% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 3.5% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 2.8% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 3.3% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 3.0% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 3.2% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 2.6% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 3.1% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
Researchers found that while wealth disparities narrowed somewhat, the ability to meet debt payments deteriorated significantly.
September CPI should be in line, and last month’s Fed rate hike may be the only one this cycle - Natixis Kitco
September CPI is just the tip of the inflation iceberg RBC
Federal Reserve Board releases results of the 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances, which provides the public and policymakers with detailed insights into the economic condition of American families
Federal Reserve Board announces enforcement action against American Express Company to address, among other things, the firm’s failure to sufficiently detect and report certain suspicious activity related to money laundering
Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
US CPI September 2026: Forecast, Core CPI and Fed Odds Admirals
The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026
Research links ICE enforcement surges to lasting declines in local spending, foot traffic and jobs. In Minneapolis, businesses are still recovering.
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Isabella Bank Corporation
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Fleur Capital Corporation
Current U.S. Inflation Rate Is 3.4%: Chart and Why It Matters NerdWallet
Tokyo core inflation rate jumps in September, bolsters case for more BOJ hikes Reuters
Consumer Price Index, New York-Newark-Jersey City — August 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics (.gov)
August CPI Report Shows Inflation at a 3.4% Annual Rate, Above Forecasts Morningstar
Inflation persisted in August, potentially locking in a Fed interest rate hike CNBC
Consumer Price Index, Northeast region — August 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics (.gov)
**Recent X posts (late September to early October 2026) on BLS/CPI/Fed topics show a hawkish FOMC tilt amid mixed inflation signals.**[[1]](https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/2107943869283233840) Key themes from relevant discussions: - **FOMC Minutes (Oct 7)**: All 19 officials supported the September rate hike; many anticipate another hike by year-end. Officials viewed policy as not sufficiently
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.4% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.