| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.0% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above 3.1% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above 3.3% | 98% | 0 | Yes 98¢ No 2¢ |
| Above 3.2% | 99% | 0 | Yes 99¢ No 1¢ |
| Above 3.4% | 96% | ▲ 1 | Yes 96¢ No 4¢ |
| Above 3.5% | 87% | 0 | Yes 87¢ No 13¢ |
| Above 3.6% | 48% | 0 | Yes 48¢ No 52¢ |
| Above 3.7% | 12% | ▲ 1 | Yes 12¢ No 88¢ |
| Above 3.8% | 2% | 0 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
| Above 4.8% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.6% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.2% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 5.0% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.0% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.3% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.4% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 3.9% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.1% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.5% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.9% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.7% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.
Research links ICE enforcement surges to lasting declines in local spending, foot traffic and jobs. In Minneapolis, businesses are still recovering.
S&P on the UK: Oil & gas prices & those for other inputs tied to conflict in the Middle East, like fertilizer, affecting inflation & interest rates.
Open on XUNIVERSITY MICHIGAN 5 YR INFLATION PRELIM ACTUAL 3.5% (FORECAST 3.5%, PREVIOUS 3.4%) $MACRO
Open on XUNIVERSITY MICHIGAN 1 YR INFLATION PRELIM ACTUAL 4.7% (FORECAST 4.8%, PREVIOUS 4.6%) $MACRO
Open on XU.S. CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS AS INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISE University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 in October, missing expectations of 47.8 and declining from 48.1 in September. The current conditions index plunged to 44.7, well below forecasts of 51.0. Meanwhile, 1-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, while 5-year expectations climbed to 3.5%, signaling persistent inflation concerns among consumers.
Open on XBANK OF SPAIN UPS 2026 INFLATION FORECAST TO 3.9%, SEES 3.7% INFLATION IN 2027 FROM 2.7% || UPS 2026 ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST TO 2.6% FROM 2.3%, SEES 2.2% GROWTH IN 2027 FROM 1.7%
Open on XBank Of Spain Ups 2026 Inflation Forecast To 3.9%, Sees 3.7% Inflation In 2027 From 2.7% - Ups 2026 Economic Growth Forecast To 2.6% From 2.3%, Sees 2.2% Growth In 2027 From 1.7%
Open on XIf the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.9% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown