| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.0% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above 3.2% | 99% | 0 | Yes 99¢ No 1¢ |
| Above 3.1% | 100% | ▲ 1 | Yes 100¢ No 0¢ |
| Above 3.3% | 98% | 0 | Yes 98¢ No 2¢ |
| Above 3.4% | 96% | 0 | Yes 96¢ No 4¢ |
| Above 3.5% | 87% | 0 | Yes 87¢ No 13¢ |
| Above 3.6% | 48% | ▼ 3 | Yes 48¢ No 52¢ |
| Above 3.7% | 12% | ▲ 2 | Yes 12¢ No 88¢ |
| Above 3.8% | 2% | 0 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
| Above 4.6% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.4% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.2% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.7% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.3% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.1% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.5% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.9% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.0% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 5.0% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 3.9% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.8% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
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Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.
Research links ICE enforcement surges to lasting declines in local spending, foot traffic and jobs. In Minneapolis, businesses are still recovering.
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If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.1% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown