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Fed & Economy · KXFED · Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?

Showing: Above 5.25% · Resolves Nov 4, 2026
Above 5.25% · 1% chance0Updated 2 min ago
Feeds 1m ago · AI summary 41m ago

Forecast

5%3%0%Sep 12Sep 20Oct 9

Stats

Volume$1.5K
24h volume$0
Open interest$1.0K
Days left17
Bid / ask0¢ / 1¢
Last1¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Above 3.75%100%▲ 1Yes 100¢ No 0¢
Above 3.00%100%▲ 1Yes 100¢ No 0¢
Above 3.25%100%▲ 1Yes 100¢ No 0¢
Above 3.50%100%▲ 1Yes 100¢ No 0¢
Above 2.75%100%▲ 1Yes 100¢ No 0¢
Above 4.00%17%▼ 1Yes 17¢ No 83¢
Above 4.25%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 4.50%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 4.75%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 5.00%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 5.25%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Why it moved AI

  • NY Fed: tariffs contributed 2.9 pp to goods price inflation by Feb 2026, without them goods prices would have fallen slightly
  • Waller: anticipates additional hikes to support timely return of inflation to 2% goal, with flexibility on timing
  • Fed minutes: most participants assessed another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate
  • Dallas Fed's Logan: Fed likely needs to raise rates by at least another 50 bps to keep inflation from settling above 2%
Generated from news and X posts below · 41m ago