| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 72% | ▼ 1 | Yes 72¢ No 28¢ |
| Fed maintains rate | 26% | 0 | Yes 26¢ No 74¢ |
| Hike >25bps | 3% | 0 | Yes 3¢ No 97¢ |
| Cut 25bps | 2% | 0 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
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**Recent X posts (mostly from late September to October 9, 2026) show ongoing discussion of Federal Reserve policy, inflation concerns, and past rate actions.**[[1]](https://x.com/LukeLeslie625/status/2108632258622189635) Key themes include: - Criticism of the Fed's competence, linking recent inflation persistence to prior rate cuts (e.g., 175 bps over the last two years) and long-term easy-money
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.