| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 72% | βΌ 1 | Yes 72Β’ No 28Β’ |
| Fed maintains rate | 26% | 0 | Yes 26Β’ No 74Β’ |
| Hike >25bps | 3% | 0 | Yes 3Β’ No 97Β’ |
| Cut 25bps | 2% | 0 | Yes 2Β’ No 98Β’ |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1Β’ No 99Β’ |
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If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves βHike 25 bpsβ to Yes and βHike 25 bpsβ to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, βFed maintains rateβ resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.