| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 72% | ▼ 2 | Yes 72¢ No 28¢ |
| Fed maintains rate | 28% | ▲ 2 | Yes 28¢ No 72¢ |
| Hike >25bps | 3% | 0 | Yes 3¢ No 97¢ |
| Cut 25bps | 2% | 0 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
No AI brief yet. Odds, news, and rules still load. If xAI is out of credits, the error is stored under Admin → Jobs and calls back off for 15 minutes.
<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxNX3NMLXhhYU1lOVVLWU9sY0k0SDUyQnEwMG9SZ1RzNHZobTIyYk9KWGJlOGhic3FKdlQ2NXlIVDF6SW1oRlNWZlY2NHlNLWlnNGoybzAwLWlkV3V1Q1ZtM21KS2FLTy02NEF6VjY4UmFNc2hYa21mRURlSkJYZWxtc1R3VmRYZFlKNUU3NzZiMkZGNGJZcG1xZUNCN0RQNkRndEVPb9IBqgFBVV95cUxOU1FSZ3pWOURaQUxBS296TzBtRFFGclJXTnpLYWwzZXU1Q01kcVZUczBxUDAwR3FaYmFZdzlXUWM2T0Q3TDVldm9nSVY4OERYRUtkdm5sdndPSU1ETU
Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxNVVFGa2Zib3I5S05XZEE1b2otVzJHcE4weWVpTlRuTjV3UnVCZXBDZ3JPMWtmYXlZb29SYUVLa3hReFpRcTVSRWM1MTZYaHlpUVpJRGdMYi1YQloyVWk2WW5XMFZwR3d6Sml1ZzI3NkFPQVpQZlZ6M19FZnhKRW1Sb0tSQ1BaNHpqZnI2TllBcHV5MmdzZE5USW9qQjEwTnhQZnM1cGNXdjhKUEU20gGyAUFVX3lxTE1fYXFaMzBCOG9RNFFaTTd5dFpGNEhCYl8zS3c5SFlwSEltZkVLTEhHMVNFY2k3ejRXeTV6aDdaU2JnT2V6c0pTWC10YXhiMUt6Y25tWW
No X posts yet. Live search retries after the 15-minute backoff if xAI just failed (credits included).
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.