| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 73% | ▲ 2 | Yes 73¢ No 27¢ |
| Fed maintains rate | 26% | 0 | Yes 26¢ No 74¢ |
| Hike >25bps | 3% | 0 | Yes 3¢ No 97¢ |
| Cut 25bps | 2% | 0 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
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Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
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If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.