| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 73% | ▲ 2 | Yes 73¢ No 27¢ |
| Fed maintains rate | 26% | 0 | Yes 26¢ No 74¢ |
| Hike >25bps | 3% | 0 | Yes 3¢ No 97¢ |
| Cut 25bps | 2% | 0 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
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Federal Reserve Board releases results of the 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances, which provides the public and policymakers with detailed insights into the economic condition of American families
Federal Reserve Board announces enforcement action against American Express Company to address, among other things, the firm’s failure to sufficiently detect and report certain suspicious activity related to money laundering
Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
Fed's Waller: More hikes needed, but there is 'flexibility' about the pace Reuters
Fed officials view another rate hike as ‘likely,’ meeting minutes show The Hill
Fed policymakers saw multiple 2026 rate hikes as likely, September FOMC minutes show Scotsman Guide
Fed Minutes Signal Further Rate Increase This Year, but No Urgency for October Hike WSJ
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Isabella Bank Corporation
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Fleur Capital Corporation
US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the first time since 2023 The Guardian
Federal Reserve hikes key rate for 1st time in 3 years, defying Trump demands for a cut AP News
Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year CNBC
**Recent X posts (late Sep–early Oct 2026) highlight a hawkish shift at the Federal Reserve.** The FOMC raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September to a 3.75–4.00% target range—the first hike since July—with a unanimous 12-0 vote. Officials cited solid growth, stable employment (~4.1% unemployment), and elevated inflation (PCE around 3.7–3.8%, still well above the 2% goal), plus
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.