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Fed maintains rate 85%Starts 4%Hike 25bps 16%Exactly 0 cuts 95%Cuts 5%Exactly 1 cut 4%Cut 25bps 1%Exactly 2 cuts 1%
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Fed & Economy · KXFEDDECISION · Resolves 1/27/2027

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

1%0Updated 3 min agoKalshi Yes · Hike >25bps
Feeds just now · summary 53m
Trade on Kalshi
OverviewNewsX FeedAI SummaryRulesRelated Markets

Forecast

6H1D1W1MALL
6%3%0%Sep 12Oct 7Oct 11

Stats

Volume$904.3K
24h volume$833
Open interest$847.7K
Days left18
Bid / ask0¢ / 1¢
Last1¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Fed maintains rate85%0Yes 85¢ No 15¢
Hike 25bps16%0Yes 16¢ No 84¢
Cut >25bps1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Cut 25bps1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Hike >25bps1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Why it moved AI

  • Odds were unchanged after the September 15-16 FOMC minutes.
  • WSJ: minutes signaled a further hike this year, but no urgency for October.
  • Reuters: Waller said more hikes are needed, with flexibility on the pace.
  • The Hill and ABC also said officials viewed another hike this year as likely.
Generated from news and X posts below · 53m ago