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Fed & Economy · KXFEDDECISION · Resolves Jan 27, 2027

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

Showing: Hike >25bps · Resolves Jan 27, 2027
Hike >25bps · 1% chance0Updated just now
Feeds 5m ago · AI summary 5h ago
Trade on Kalshi
OverviewNewsX FeedAI SummaryRulesRelated Markets

Forecast

6H1D1W1MALL
5%3%0%Oct 4Oct 8Oct 11

Stats

Volume$904.3K
24h volume$833
Open interest$847.7K
Days left17
Bid / ask0¢ / 1¢
Last1¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Fed maintains rate84%▼ 1Yes 84¢ No 16¢
Hike 25bps16%▲ 1Yes 16¢ No 84¢
Cut >25bps1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Hike >25bps1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Cut 25bps1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Why it moved AI

  • Odds were unchanged after the September 15-16 FOMC minutes.
  • WSJ: minutes signaled a further hike this year, but no urgency for October.
  • Reuters: Waller said more hikes are needed, with flexibility on the pace.
  • The Hill and ABC also said officials viewed another hike this year as likely.
Generated from news and X posts below · 5h ago

News

Federal Reserve · 2d
Federal Reserve Board releases results of the 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances, which provides the public and policymakers with detailed insights into the economic condition of American families
Federal Reserve · 3d
Federal Reserve Board announces enforcement action against American Express Company to address, among other things, the firm’s failure to sufficiently detect and report certain suspicious activity related to money laundering
CNBC Economy · 3d
Inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs, NY Fed says

Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.

Reuters · 3d
Fed's Waller: More hikes needed, but there is 'flexibility' about the pace

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The Hill · 3d
Fed officials view another rate hike as ‘likely,’ meeting minutes show

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxPcmJlVl95MWJQSzkzZUNnTEhfeUVBa28wOGNnOVFISUp2Ni12V2VaZTFLaTZmRlRVX0pEOVJvYXdvSm1LaElhYVFNdS0tWlVtbVZzSkplcm1aNGNNMlNrT3drem4yLTJ6RVVkc19zVEdOWnY1VzZYaXZPdlNfY3RPUTJ30gGHAUFVX3lxTE9qUktEcm8zYVU3VUhNVU5neGNlOWdzYUNpNjdEdmZRVTRlX0tPUHVXeE1ZdHB4ZFpvOTlxVDYyZk1Denh5TnY1SVFXVjY3Z3dqSHdkT2lfejV3cHMzM2Y3ZnZpanRjQ241TXdjdndSNHY0b0RZbFNuUl9kMzZOdz

ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos · 4d
Federal Reserve officials expect another rate hike will be needed this year, according to minutes
WSJ · 4d
Fed Minutes Signal Further Rate Increase This Year, but No Urgency for October Hike

Fed Minutes Signal Further Rate Increase This Y

Federal Reserve · 4d
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026
Federal Reserve · 6d
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Isabella Bank Corporation
Federal Reserve · 9d
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Fleur Capital Corporation
Federal Reserve (.gov) · Sep 16
The Fed - September 15-16, 2026 FOMC Meeting
The Guardian · Sep 16
US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the first time since 2023
AP News · Sep 16
Federal Reserve hikes key rate for 1st time in 3 years, defying Trump demands for a cut

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CNBC · Sep 16
Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTFB2d21SUXhkazRGZk1QSTgxb2lQME5TUzdVNEZ0bWVxdWRENm96dUNfU040Rnc4Skl5MnZwcXlKLXh0c1NzYVhrNDZHY0F2M2otb0ZEZmRyd0N2Vlk1WjZ1a1FpZk9jaEtBV25HejlPUE5LVWllZDN2TtIBfkFVX3lxTE5MbUliaWM2Nm1nSDRQU0ZEUmdZUXVNVjRZeXpzRWlaY2pMRzMwdGFUb09jaWhqUFNJZEo5OUxJenR2aEtkcWR0MnVYR3VmdndJWlJTNGlPWmUzNmJYLS1oZ29fMW5PR0dzY3JYUkUzaGdfemtIQjBqc1hjMjNtZw?oc=5" target="_

X Feed

No X posts yet. Live search retries after the 15-minute backoff if xAI just failed (credits included).

Rules

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.