| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats, 8 to 10% | 27% | 0 | Yes 27¢ No 73¢ |
| Democrats, 6 to 8% | 20% | 0 | Yes 20¢ No 80¢ |
| Democrats, 10 to 12% | 20% | ▲ 1 | Yes 20¢ No 80¢ |
| Democrats, 4 to 6% | 11% | ▲ 1 | Yes 11¢ No 89¢ |
| Democrats, 12 to 14% | 9% | 0 | Yes 9¢ No 91¢ |
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Democrats are up in arms this week after federal agents raided the home of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), accusing the Trump administration of weaponizing the government to go after political adversaries. The Democrats are particularly piqued that the operation, conducted Monday morning by agents of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), took place just weeks...
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If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 12 and 14 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.