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Fed & Economy · KXLARGECUT · Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?

Showing: In 2026 · Resolves Jan 1, 2027
In 2026 · 3% chance0Updated 46 min ago
Feeds 1h ago · AI summary 6h ago

Forecast

7%4%0%
Oct 5Oct 7Oct 11

Stats

Volume$662.6K
24h volume$837
Open interest$222.7K
Days left82
Bid / ask2¢ / 3¢
Last3¢

Why it moved AI

  • September FOMC minutes showed policymakers saw multiple 2026 hikes as likely (Scotsman Guide), a backdrop for 3% odds of cuts beyond 25 bps.
  • NY Fed research found tariff-driven inflation on many everyday items (CNBC), keeping price pressure in focus rather than easing.
  • Lisa Cook probe and Bessent hiring Judy Shelton are Fed-independence headlines, not a new CPI, PCE, or jobs print.
Generated from news and X posts below · 6h ago

News

CNBC Economy · 2d
Treasury's Bessent hires Trump's controversial former Fed board pick, Judy Shelton, as advisor

Shelton's controversial economic ideas led the Senate to block her nomination to the Fed. Now she's going to be a counselor to the Treasury secretary.

CNBC Economy · 3d
Inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs, NY Fed says

Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.

CNBC Economy · 4d
Inflation fears on the rise as one-year outlook in Fed survey hits highest level since May 2023

The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.

PBS · Sep 16
What the Fed rate hike likely means for you

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X Feed

No X posts yet. Live search retries after the 15-minute backoff if xAI just failed (credits included).

Rules

If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

For example, this market will resolve to Yes if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points during one day, non-scheduled meetings are included. The Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January and 25 basis points in March would not be sufficient to resolve this market.