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Fed maintains rate 85%Starts 4%Hike 25bps 16%Exactly 0 cuts 95%Cuts 5%Exactly 1 cut 4%Cut 25bps 1%Exactly 2 cuts 1%
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Fed & Economy ยท KXLARGECUT ยท Resolves 1/1/2027

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

3%0Updated 2 min agoKalshi Yes ยท In 2026
Feeds just now ยท summary 45m
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Forecast

6H1D1W1MALL
8%4%0%Sep 12Oct 6Oct 11

Stats

Volume$662.3K
24h volume$525
Open interest$222.3K
Days left82
Bid / ask2ยข / 3ยข
Last3ยข

Why it moved AI

  • September FOMC minutes showed policymakers saw multiple 2026 hikes as likely (Scotsman Guide), a backdrop for 3% odds of cuts beyond 25 bps.
  • NY Fed research found tariff-driven inflation on many everyday items (CNBC), keeping price pressure in focus rather than easing.
  • Lisa Cook probe and Bessent hiring Judy Shelton are Fed-independence headlines, not a new CPI, PCE, or jobs print.
Generated from news and X posts below ยท 45m ago