| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 4.5% | 17% | 0 | Yes 17¢ No 83¢ |
| At least 5.0% | 13% | ▲ 1 | Yes 13¢ No 87¢ |
| At least 5.5% | 9% | ▼ 2 | Yes 9¢ No 91¢ |
| At least 6.0% | 6% | 0 | Yes 6¢ No 94¢ |
| At least 6.5% | 6% | ▲ 1 | Yes 6¢ No 94¢ |
| At least 7.0% | 2% | ▼ 1 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
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Federal Reserve Board announces enforcement action against American Express Company to address, among other things, the firm’s failure to sufficiently detect and report certain suspicious activity related to money laundering
Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026
Research links ICE enforcement surges to lasting declines in local spending, foot traffic and jobs. In Minneapolis, businesses are still recovering.
Stagflation lite sets in as inflation surges in April The Real Economy Blog
US consumer inflation hot in March amid record surge in gasoline prices Reuters
Iran’s inflation surges further as consumer prices hit new highs Iran International
Consumers are still sour despite inflation cooldown Axios
Inflation falls to 2.7% as slower housing and food increases offset a surge in electricity NBC News
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If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.